Hi Folks.

This week is Thanksgiving Week in the USA so this forecast is a short one as a result. Back to a full slate of news next week.

MONDAY: A short week made even shorter by no news listed for today. We've had plenty of Monday's that started us off with no news but it seems worse when we know Thursday and Friday are going to be blank (or close to it) as well. But it is what it is.

TUESDAY: So we finally get the week started at 9:00 a.m. with the S&P/CS Composite 20 Housing Price Index year over year, and the generic Housing Price Index month over month. I could go into more detail but why bother? Traders summarily ignore both of these numbers month in and month out. So we move on to 10:00 a.m. and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence number, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. The housing number is a non-event as are pretty much all housing numbers currently, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence number gets ignored as well, leaving us with the Richmond Manufacturing Index number. Last week the Philly Fed number came out with a massive miss (expectation was +7.4, it came in at -5.5) and the market simply yawned. So given this is just a couple of days before Thanksgiving, meaning a lot of traders, both retail and institutional, have already headed off for wherever the turkey is being served on Thursday, combined with the complete lack of trader interest in these specific numbers, I'm guessing you won't see much beyond the old 10:00 a.m. bump banks and houses a bit further west than Florida come online and make a few adjustments to yesterday's trades. And that is it for Tuesday's news. Not even a random Fed Clown speaking somewhere.

WEDNESDAY: Here we go. The Wednesday before Thanksgiving is the traditional News Dump day as various vendors plan to be dark until next Monday so we get this blizzard of data played out in front of a trading group where 75% or more have called it quits for the week. You might think this means that price action will be flat as no one who is anyone will be around to buy or sell. But I have seen these "day before" trading days turn into a bonanza of big moves in each direction on just about anything that happens to be open. The news is just the cherry on top.

So at 8:30 a.m. we get

--Prelim GDP q/q

--Unemployment Claims

--Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

--Durable Goods Orders m/m

--Prelim GDP Price Index q/q

--Goods Trade Balance

--Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m

Several of which (GDP, Durable Goods, Unemployment) can move the markets around a bit with the right numbers in the right circumstances. And the circumstances today will be Low Volume, meaning any large traders or group of large traders who don't mind engaging in a little friendly price fixing, can make things happen. It really won't matter what the numbers say. If the few remaining big kids decide to pile into one asset or another, that asset will go up or down accordingly.

At 10:00 a.m. we get:

--Core PCE Price Index m/m

--Pending Home Sales m/m

--Personal Income m/m

--Personal Spending m/m

And the same rules apply, although the Core PCE number is really the only one on tap worth watching. If there is a big move at 8:30, by the time 10:00 gets here it may already be played out with traders taking their profits and heading for the exit before the 10:00 a.m. numbers drop. So you are pretty much forced to play this one by ear, and don't for a second be fooled by the first quick move...it could be a few of the stragglers from 8:30 closing their open positions and bailing for the day so don't get stuck in a trade that goes nowhere. Be cautious with what you see at 10:00. 10:30 is Crude Oil and 12:00 is NatGas, so if you trade either be a little wary as well because volume should be down compared to most weeks. And if that wasn't enough, for the 6 remaining traders who are too junior to get to go home early, the Fed will release the minutes from their last meeting at 2:00. Read it this weekend to get a feel for the Fed's intentions as to future rate decisions, but don't try and trade this one today. You could end up being the entire market.

THURSDAY: Turkey Day. The markets are open, but from a US standpoint, no one will be around. If you have to trade, focus on the Asian session last night and the London Session this morning. There have been a few holiday Thursdays where I made some nice scores thanks to the international volume. And there have been a few days where I checked to make sure I had an internet connection because price action was deader than dead. So be aware, especially if you are non-US based and like trading the Indices and such.

FRIDAY: There always has to be one. Ours is Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. Don't bother. make this a 4 day weekend the way God intended.

Back next week.

Jeff