Hi Folks.

Last week we had CPI, PPI and Retail Sales on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to close out the week, and I had high hopes they would really create some price action waves. And while price action wasn't the worst I've ever seen, it rally didn't live up to any of my expectations.

I say this because by this time next week, we'll probably look at last week's trading as a real barn burner in comparison to this week. I think it will take an Alien Invasion to move prices over the next 5 days because the news we have lined up sure isn't going to do the job.

But onwards and upwards anyway.

Here is the scoop:

MONDAY: We start the week off with the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. Housing has dropped off traders' radar over the years, particularly after that balloonhead from the National Board of Realtors essentially admitted they made up the numbers every month (he didn't say that in those exact words but that was the conclusion traders took from his little speech). So don't expect any love from the housing numbers. Fed Speak (Goolsbee) is also set for 10:00 a.m. as he gives the welcoming speech at some Fed event in Chicago. No audience questions = no likelihood of him saying anything to move the markets.

TUESDAY: We continue this cavalcade of useless news with Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30 a.m., and just like yesterday, close it out with a little more Fed Speak (Schmid) at 1:10 p.m., speaking to the Omaha Chamber of Commerce about the economic outlook and future monetary policy. There are audience questions expected but as always, not knowing when the questions will arrive or how said Fed Clown will respond makes it tough and almost impossible to trade.

WEDNESDAY: We start with Crude Oil at 10:30. That should give you some idea of how the day is expected to go. Fed Speak set for 11:00 a.m. (Cook) and 12:15 p.m. (Bowman). Both are speaking about monetary policy to different groups, and audience questions are expected here as well, but for the reasons already stated, not worth trying to trade.

THURSDAY: If nothing else, we have a lot more news today, worthless though it may be. First Time Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index both at 8:30 a.m. As mentioned here in previous forecasts, the Fed pays a lot more attention to the Unemployment number than they used to, but we are 5 weeks away from the next FOMC meeting so it likely won't cause traders any pause if the number misses a little in either direction. Philly Fed number is the biggest of the Manufacturing Indexes, but has been in the dumps for so long even a really good positive number likely won't impress anyone as they tend to be viewed as one-off events. String 3 or 4 good ones together and maybe the market will start caring again. 10:00 a.m. brings Existing Home Sales (pass) and the Conference Board Leading Index number (summarily ignored by traders for decades now). NatGas at 10:30 (pass) and a carload of Fed Speak at different times (8:45, 12:25, 12:30 and 4:40 p.m.) Same rules for Fed Speak apply as always, but on days when there is a lot of it, pay attention to the times when it's scheduled as a random comment from one of these clowns can act as a live grenade thrown into the middle of your otherwise perfectly good trade.

FRIDAY: 9:45 is Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI numbers, which do have at least some history of moving prices around, so these are worth paying attention to (and I think that is the first time I've said that about any numbers this week, which tells you the kind of week we can expect). Then at 10:00 are the revised UofM Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers. If you didn't get any love from the Flash numbers at 9:45, don't count on getting any from the UofM numbers 15 minutes later.

See you back here next week.

Jeff