Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
MONDAY: Today is Veteran's Day in the US so there are no news events scheduled. But trading will be open as usual. Just without any news to spur on price action.
TUESDAY: With yesterday being "No News" day we've come to expect the Tuesday after to make up for yesterday with 2 days worth of news releases.
Heh.
We start at 6:00 a.m. eastern time (also known as the hour I begin to think about waking up) with the NFIB Small Business Index. It's been around a while but no one seriously trades it. Pass. After that we have three more news events: the Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations number, the RCM/TIPP economic Optimism Report, and the Loan Officer Survey. All three are listed as "Tentative" meaning we don't know exactly when these reports will drop, or even if they will drop today or later this week (or month). So don't bother worrying about these. Tentative release dates/times make these untradeable. For the rest of the day we have 5 different Fed Clowns speaking at different times in different locations about different topics. Much like the "tentative" numbers we can't do much with Fed Speak since we have no idea what will be said when and how the market will react. Just know we have talks set for 10:00 and 10:15 a.m., and 2:00, 5:00 and 5:30 p.m., so if you're trading any of those times be aware the Fed may screw up your perfectly good trade with some ill-advised comment.
WEDNESDAY: Now we get to trade a real number. CPI is set for 8:30 and this one rarely fails to live up to its hype. And as usual, we get two bites at the apple: one at 8:30 with the release and again at 9:30 when the Index markets open. The Core number is expected at .3, the overall number at .2, and the year over year number is expected to remain at 2.4%. The idea that inflation is holding steady at 2.4% is a joke, which you already know if you do your own shopping, but the market is always entertained by good news, so expect more of it today. The rest of the day is Fed Speak at 9:45 a.m., 1:00 and 1:30 p.m., and the Federal Budget Imbalance at 2:00 p.m., which I have never traded before mostly because no one else trades it either.
THURSDAY: Since yesterday was CPI, today must be PPI, which it is, along with the weekly Unemployment Claims number. But first we get Fed Speak at 7:00 a.m., which we can ignore. Then PPI/Unemployment at 8:30, which is rarely as exciting from a price action standpoint as yesterday's CPI number, but we should see at least a little something at 8:30. Whether that carries over to the 9:30 Index opens remains to be seen, but historically it doesn't do a lot, no matter what kind of number gets posted. But there is always a first time for everything, so at least pay a little attention at 9:30 just in case. NatGas is at 10:30 with Crude Oil at 11:00, thanks to the Monday holiday, and the rest of the day is Fed Speak (9:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m.). But 3:00 p.m. is Powell speaking at some big hoohah thrown by the Dallas Fed, and I'm expecting him to at least touch on the idea of a new POTUS in the White House come January 20th, 2025. He's already run his mouth a couple of times trying to assert his independence, so maybe it will just be a rehash of his earlier comments. But if you are trading at 3 p.m. on Thursday, be aware he could drop a couple of bombs in here that could really bring the market to a boil, at least until the close.
FRIDAY: Today we get Retail Sales, along with Import Prices and the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Imports and Empire will do little to nothing on their own, and frankly, Retail Sales isn't the barn burner it once was either. So after two days with some big numbers dropping at 8:30 (CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday) this might not be much to see. The rest of the morning has Cap Utilization and Industrial Production at 9:15 a.m. (also not much to see here) and Business Inventories at 10:00 (a final shot at some sort of tradeable price action, but again historically, Inventories comes and goes without traders even noticing a number dropped). So if you scored big on Wednesday and maybe Thursday, today is a good day to sleep in and start your weekend early.
See you next week.
Jeff
