Hi Folks.
Just a quick reminder to the Canadians and Americanos who are reading this that overnight we lost an hour when the clock automatically sprang forward from 2:00 a.m. to 3:00 a.m., better known as Daylight Savings Time. So if you haven't done so, adjust your clocks accordingly (unless they self adjust automatically like pretty much every clock I own except the one in my car).
SUNDAY: 2 Japanese reports at 7:30 p.m. and another at 7:50 p.m., and none of them worth mentioning beyond noting here that they exist.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: We open with more Japanese reports (at 1:00 and 2:00 a.m.), but again, none of them with any sort of history of making things happen on the chart. Same goes for the German reports at 3:00 a.m. And the Swiss report at 4:00 a.m. Just as an FYI, the Eurogroup meets all day today but I cannot recall any time in the recent past when leaks or prepared statements issued during or after those meetings conclude for the day has ever moved the EUR around any amount worth trading. The Sentix Investor Confidence number is another one that just takes up space on the calendar but doesn't do anything of note to price action. Then in the evening we have a boatload of numbers dropping from all parts of the AustralAsian region, and some of them, like the Japanese Final GDP and GDP Price Index, look impressive in name, but from a trading standpoint do little to nothing. So this evening looks like a bust, news-wise.
USA Session: What USA session? Absolutely nothing scheduled for today.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: A real short list of numbers designed to lull traders to sleep. 2:00 a.m. is the Japanese Preliminary Machine Tools Orders number, Euro ECOFIN meetings all day long (see above for the expected impact, similar to Eurogroup meetings); 9:30 a.m. is the Conference Board Leading Index number for Great Britain; and Japan closes us out at 7:50 p.m. with the BSI Manufacturing Index and their PPI y/y number. As noted previously, their PPI number has zero history of moving the Yen in any noticeable fashion, so if you miss it, you haven't likely missed anything.
USA Session: The 6:00 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index number can be safely ignored under the rule that if a number drops while the focus country is asleep, it is considered meaningless. Then at 10:00 a.m. we get the JOLTS Job Openings number. When paired with a PMI number, this one has been known to move things around a bit. But on its own it's a little more dicey in terms of trading it. Yes, it's the first real number released during the US session this week, but there are a couple of numbers coming up tomorrow and Thursday that will likely do a much better job of capturing trader attention, so don't be surprised if this one comes and goes quietly Tuesday.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: A late start today with Legarde leading off with a speech at 4:45 a.m. to the ECB watchers Conference, whatever that is. I'd pass on it but she is the head of the Euro Fed so it could end up that she moves the EUR around at some point. But when, for what reason, and for how long, is anyone's guess. Just beware she's on calendar this morning. Some floating stuff from EUR and GBP, but it's floating (no fixed time for release) and the actual contents haven't been known to be worth trading anyway, but once again, just be aware it's out there. Canada releases their next rate statement which is projected to drop once again by another quarter point, from 3:00% to 2.75%. This should really make the CAD go zoom against all other currencies, and the presser scheduled for 10:30 a.m. could also keep the party hopping for at least another 30 minutes to an hour. So good news for CAD traders. Three evening reports for Australia, New Zealand and Great Britain and none of them are going to do anything to price action.
USA Session: CPI at 8:30. Arguably the most tradeable number of the month, and this time it drops before the PPI (which shows up tomorrow) so this will have maximum price action impact, no matter how the number appears (on target or off by a little or a lot). The rest of the day is Crude Oil at 10:30 a.m., a 10 year bond auction at 1:01 p.m. and the Federal Budget Imbalance number at 2:00 p.m. None of those other numbers really matter. It's all about the CPI today.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: We open with Swiss PPI at 3:00 a.m., followed by Italian Unemployment at 5:00 a.m., EUR Industrial Production at 6:00 and a floating 10 year bond auction number from GB. None of it deserves even a cursory glance. At 8:30 a.m. the CAD has a Building Permits number, and while most Canadian numbers push the CAD around upon release, this one is one of the lesser numbers, so don't expect too much. We close out the evening with a pair of New Zealand numbers not worth mentioning, so I won't.
USA Session: PPI leads off at 8:30 a.m. If we see a big reaction from CPI yesterday, then today's response to the PPI will likely be muted, unless it goes in the opposite direction of the CPI and in a big way. Not sure why this is unless it's just a matter of trader fatigue, and honestly, this week has been so crappy from a news standpoint I don't know what anyone can possibly be fatigued from other than boredom, but history tells us yesterday is the day we want to trade, not today. Unemployment claims come out at the same time, but I'm not expecting much when compared to CPI price action 24 hours ago. NatGas at 10:30 (yawn) and the 30 year Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. (even bigger yawn) and our day is done.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Not sure why this is but the powers that be have decided to flood the zone with numbers at 3:00 a.m. today. Two German numbers with no real history of moving the Euro, but the GBP gets the monthly GDP number along with 4 other lesser numbers. The previous two months saw the GBPUSD move 27 and 30+ pips after the release, so this one is probably worth paying attention to. There are a few more EUR and GBP numbers due out this morning but none of them can hold a candle to the GDP at 3:00 a.m. Canada drops a pair of lesser numbers at 8:30 a.m. (Manufacturing Sales and Wholesale Sales), and they are Canadian numbers, and it is Friday morning so this is the last chance for CAD traders to make anything happen, but these are low level yellow folder reports, so don't get your hopes up too much.
USA Session: Preliminary University of Michigan numbers (Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations) at 10:00 a.m. That's it. FF has these listed as Red Folder reports, but that's being waaaay generous based on overall previous price
action. HOWEVER, last month's numbers came out with Final Wholesale Inventories (which never moves anything, ever) and missed by 4 points to the downside and the EURUSD moved about 60 pips up and down after the release. Given this has been a week of mostly no news for the Dollar (CPI notwithstanding), another big miss might create another mini firestorm worth trading. If you decide to skip the entire day because of the overall history of this number's lack of impact, I would certainly understand. But given the otherwise quiet week, this might be a decent chance to close out the week with a winner.
See you back here next week.
Jeff
