Hi Folks.
Before we get started just a quick reminder I have a few extra Volume Packages left at $49. A lot of early buyers already did their one-on-one training sessions and some others have kicked their training date out into the future by a few weeks, so I can squeeze a few more people in from my list before I take this offer down and replace it with one that is a hell of a lot more expensive and does NOT include personal one-on-one training with me. So if you've been putting it off, now is the time to make your move. Go to https://simplicators.com/wwnifvolume/ and click the Buy Now button before this page goes away forever.
Now, on to this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: Typical Sunday to start the week. 2 Japanese numbers at 7:50 p.m. (Preliminary Industrial Production and Retail Sales) with no history of moving prices around; a New Zealand number at 8:00 p.m. (ANZ Business Confidence) with an identical track record; and a pair of Aussie numbers: MI Inflation Gauge at 8:00 p.m. and Private Sector Credit at 8:30, and that makes the hat trick of meaningless numbers for the day. On to Monday.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: About a jillion reports dropping in the next 24 hours (okay, actual number is 18 but it looks like a lot more) and all but 3 are yellow folder reports and none of those are worth paying attention to. But 2 out of the remaining 3 are Red Folder, so that makes the otherwise lackluster day worth trading, right? Wrong. We start with German Preliminary CPI m/m, which is set to drop "All Day" because the report is actually comprised of 6 different reports all coming out at different times. So this can only do damage and we can't trade any of them since we don't know when they will show up. So much ado about nothing as far as the German CPI number is concerned. But the Australian Interest Rate decision (the Cash Rate) comes out at 11:30 p.m. and interest rate decisions move price around, right? Well, yes, if you consider an 8 pip move in the hour after the last decision came out (where the Aussies CUT their rate by a quarter point) to be price action. I don't. And the last glimmer of hope is the 8:30 p.m. Aussie Retail Sales m/m number, which created the same sort of 8 pip firestorm the Cash Rate cut inspired earlier. So basically a lot of numbers coming out in both the early and late sessions, but absolutely none of it worth waiting around for.
USA Session: The Asian/London session may have sucked, but at least in the USA session we have...wait, what do we have? The Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m.? That's it? One lousy number no one watches or trades? Might as well have stayed in bed today.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Do you remember that 90's movie starring Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell called Groundhog Day where Bill Murray is forced to relive the same day over and over and over again? Well, welcome to Forex Groundhog Day, except almost 2X worse than yesterday because we have 31 numbers total on calendar today instead of 18. I don't know what we did to deserve this buts let's all agree to promise to never do it again, shall we? There are a bunch of PMI numbers coming out (Spain 3:15; Swiss 3:30; Italy 3:45; France 3:50; Germany 3:55; EU 4:00; GB 4:30; Canada 9:30;) so as usual watch for the early numbers to align, good or bad, and at least a small trend to possibly develop. No trend, no trade. Ignoring the yellow folder reports, which is going to be a thing from now on unless I actually find one that consistently makes price go zoom (highly unlikely), we do have EUR CPI numbers at 5:00 a.m.. Last month inflation went up a tick from 2.6% to 2.7% and we saw a massive 6 pip move in the 60 minutes following the release. This one should get downgraded to yellow folder status any time now. Lagarde from the EU Central Bank speaks at 8:30 in Frankfurt at an AI Conference. Can't trade it but at 8:30 she could really screw up your trade, intentionally or inadvertently, so be aware she's out there. In the evening session 5 more yellow folder numbers from Japan, New Zealand and Australia. No big deal.
USA Session: We start with Fed Speak at 9:00 (Barkin); Final Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 (no one will notice); then at 10:00 we get that deadly combo of ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings. When these two come out at the same time we tend to see at least some price action in the 10-15 minutes after the number drop. So on the third day of the week, mid morning, we finally see a couple of numbers we might actually get a little bit excited over. Then we go right back to sleep for the rest of the session as the remaining 2 numbers give us the Double Whammy of Yellow Folder and Tentative Release Times. So we pass twice on both of them.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: The only good thing I can find to say about this session today is it is mercifully short. All yellow folders, so nothing worth following. But only 12 numbers across all sessions.
USA Session: ADP releases their own version of the NFP at 8:15 a.m. and as noted previously, this no longer moves price much, if at all, but it gives us an advance peek at what to expect from the real NFP coming down in 2 more days. No need to watch the charts when it drops, but make sure you come back to the calendar at some point just to see what their number looks like. Crude Oil is at 10:30 which Oil traders already know.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Groundhog Day Lite. 23 calendar entries. Almost all yellow folders. However, the Swiss led us off with their red folder CPI m/m number. Last month we saw an 18 pip move down on a .1% number miss, the previous month a 17 pip drop on a number that came in exactly on target. I don't get overly excited about moves that can't even reach 20 pips, but a steady diet of 17-18 pip moves that can be found anywhere on a calendar are worth following. The rest of the A/L session is all yellow folder, but we do get the Services PMI numbers from all over (Spain 3:15; Italy 3:45; France 3:50; Germany 3:55; EU 4:00; GB 4:30; no Canada as far as I can see) so again, watch for a trend to develop early and No Trend = No Trade.
USA Session: Lots of yellow to be found in this session as well, but we do get Unemployment Claims at 8:30 (still a red folder but the lack of reaction to the number means a beige folder is likely in the offing); Final Services PMI at 9:45 (and it will get the same amount of respect [zero] the Manufacturing PMI got 2 days ago); ISM Services PMI at 10:00 (red folder and the source behind a likely move a few seconds later) and the rest of the session is junk numbers and Fed Speak (Jefferson 12:00 p.m., Cook 2:30 p.m.)
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Yellow garbage until 4:30 a.m. with the GBP Construction PMI number, an "above/below 50" number. Forecast to come in safely below 50 at 46.5 after a 44.6 last month. If it comes in above 50 you might see some activity, but if it hits close to the expectations you likely won't even see a tremor in GBP prices. The CAD has their version of the NFP at 8:30 so if you are a CAD trader, this is a High Holy Day.
USA Session: NFP Day. What more need be said? It may not inspire 150 pip whipsaws like back in olden days, but it's still one of the most tradeable numbers out there. At noon Powell speaks at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference, in Arlington. Audience questions expected. You know, back in my younger days as a semi-professional horseplayer, I used to attend the occasional conference on Horse Handicapping where we had speakers who would teach us about some of the latest tips and tricks for being a better handicapper. They were held in a conference room at the Stardust Hotel and their sports book was a convenient 30 second walk away from the meeting room, in the event we felt the need to test out one or more of these new theories. And all our drinks were free. Those were fun events to attend. The one Powell is speaking at? There are not enough legal stimulants on the market today to keep me awake at something like that. Maybe DOGE needs to take a look and see if this isn't just some form of money laundering disguised as a grant, or something similar. Fed Clowns Barr and Waller are also speaking at 12:00 and 12:45 at different but equally boring conferences elsewhere to end the week.
And as my final note on this subject (I think) Australia and New Zealand join the rest of us on Daylight Savings Time Sunday night, so now the trading world is once again in sync and operating during the expected normal hours.
See you next week.
Jeff
