Hi Folks.
I still have 4 slots left of the 50 allocated for the one hour one-on-one personal trainings as part of the new Volume Analysis package I am releasing this weekend. If you want to know more visit https://simplicators.com/wwnifvolume
If you are interested I would suggest you move fast because I expect these will be gone by the end of the evening tonight.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: A typical Sunday in that none of the three reports on calendar are likely to do much in terms of moving price around (two Aussie PMI numbers and one from Japan). But these are the early warning shots for the boatload of PMI numbers due for release over the next 12-14 hours. These won't do anything to the AUD or JPY, but they might give us a hint at what to expect from the rest of the PMI numbers dropping shortly.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: And here come the rest of those numbers. Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI numbers from France (4:15 a.m.), Germany (4:30 a.m.), the EU (5:00 a.m.), and Great Britain (5:30 a.m.). As per the usual, we aren't expecting any single number to do much by way of price action, but if the earlier numbers are consistently bad or good, we might be able to catch a brief trend on the later numbers. So if you are trading the EU or GB numbers, this is likely your only chance to make anything out of the numbers. Later in the day (2:00 p.m. my time) Bailey from the BOE is speaking, but the Fed Rules that apply to US Fed speechifying apply equally to the BOE and all the other Central Banks. We don't know what they'll say or when they'll say it so we can't trade it like a CPI or NFP number. But we can sure get a good trade destroyed by an offhand comment, so just be aware this one is out there if you're trading Monday afternoon. The session closes with the Japanese Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. We can't really trade those either.
USA Session: Our Flash PMI numbers drop at 9:45, and since both the Services and Manufacturing numbers are showing up at the same time, this usually means we'll see some activity as a result. So pay attention as 9:45 a.m. rolls around. After that we have a pair of Fed Clowns speaking: Bostic at 1:30 p.m. and Barr at 3:10. Fed Rules apply.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: A very quiet overnight session. Japan's BOJ Core CPI number at 1:00 a.m., a German ifo Business Climate number at 5:00 a.m. and a CBI Realized Sales number out of Great Britain at 7:00 a.m. My notes tell me none of these are likely to be barn burners. During the US session we have the Belgian Business Climate number dropping at 10:00 a.m. (a trading non-event) and the German Buba head Nagel speaking at 12:00 noon (Fed Rules apply). In the evening the Japanese have one of about a dozen or so PPI numbers dropping (and none of them ever do anything noteworthy), and close out the evening with the Australian CPI number y/y. Last month the CPI came out a tick lower than expected and in the hour the number dropped the difference between high and low prices for the AUDUSD was 8 pips. This may be a red folder report in Forex Factory's world, but out here where the traders hang out, it's a giant nothingburger.
USA Session: A lot of stuff but none of it meaningful. Fed Speak (Kugler) at 8:40; S&P Composite Housing Price Index and a generic Housing Price Index both at 9:00 a.m., more Fed Speak (Williams) at 9:05, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers all hit at 10:00 a.m. and you can safely ignore FF's designation of all these numbers as "beige" (meaning more volatile than the typical "yellow" folder report) because 10 o'clock will come and go and we'll forget to even check the calendar until 10:05 and all we'll see is flat price action at 10 and after. Just a lot of noise today, that's all.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Finally something worth watching tonight. GBP has a few CPI numbers dropping at 3:00 a.m. (normally these would hit at 2:00 a.m. but the Brits and the EU don't switch to DST until this weekend). This particular set of numbers has been known to push the GBPUSD around 25-40 pips after release, so definitely worth looking at. But it kind of drops off a steep cliff after that. The Swiss have some UBS Economic Expectations report due out at 5:00 a.m., followed by a Housing Price Index number from GB at 5:30 a.m. Neither is likely to have the kind of price action impact the earlier CPI number is expected to deliver. The Brits also have an annual Budget Release set as Tentative, so not much we can do with that, and it's a report and not a number which makes it doubly untradeable. At 10:00 the Swiss have a Quarterly Bulletin set for release (another report/not a number release) and at 1:30 p.m. the Canadians release the minutes from their last Central Bank meeting. Probably worth looking through but like all other reports, nothing we can trade.
USA Session: Durable Goods drops at 8:30 a.m. (Core and General). Not one we would expect to see a lot of price action from, but this has been a pretty thin week from a news standpoint, so if the numbers come out off in any significant way, we could see prices go zoom for at least a few minutes. Fed Speak at 10:00 (Kashkari), Crude Oil at 10:30 (natch) and more Fed Speak at 1:10 p.m. (Musalem) to close out the day.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Starts with British Fed Speak (Dhingra) at 4:30 a.m., the Euros have Money Supply and Private Loans dropping at 5:00 a.m. (total non-event for traders), a floating EU Economic Forecast (a bad combination of "tentative" release time and a report, not a number, so pass) and we close out the evening with a Tokyo Core CPI number at 7:30 p.m., which only measures spending in Tokyo as opposed to Japan-wide, and the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at 7:50 p.m. (report, not number). Like most Japanese numbers, these can be safely ignored as well.
USA Session: A bunch of 8:30 a.m. numbers, the big two being Final GDP and Weekly Unemployment. The market has already priced in the GDP number based on the Prelim number that came out some days back. The unemployment number just isn't the big deal it was back when the Fed was trying to fool themselves into believing they had inflation whipped (they didn't) and the Final GDP Price Index is one of those pesky inflation numbers that kept coming out hotter than expected, but was usually overshadowed by other sexier numbers that came out at the same time. But as I mentioned yesterday, we've been short on tradeable news this week so maybe the 8:30 flood of numbers will jump-start trading for the day. Just don't bet the farm on it. After 8:30 the quality of numbers drops hard. Pending Home Sales at 10:00, NatGas at 10:30 and Fed Speak at 4:30 p.m. to close out the day.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Lots of calendar entries but not much meat on dem bones. At 3:00 a.m. there are a bunch of GBP numbers, with Retail Sales being the major biggie, such as it is. The EU has the German Consumer Climate number but that's not worth waiting for. Retail Sales in GB is another red folder report from FF, who I suspect awards red folder status to anything related to CPI and Retail Sales (and GDP) regardless of how the market receives and reacts to that news over time. And honestly, how the market reacts is anyone's guess on this one. Last month the number was expected at .4%, it came in at 1.7% and we saw a grand total of 13 pips during the 2:00 a.m. hour. The previous month (December) expectations were .5%, it came in at .2% and we saw around 60 pips of activity from top to bottom at 2:00 a.m. So there seems to be no rhyme nor reason behind some of these moves, but since the potential for a 60+ pip moves lurks in the shadows, you probably want to keep an eye on this one. But after the Brit Retail Sales Experience, it goes downhill fast. The Brits follow up Retail Sales with a Nationwide Housing Price Index set to drop sometime between March 28th and April 3rd. Seriously? Thanks for the warning. France has Consumer Spending and a Preliminary CPI number at 3:45, but no one cares. The Swiss release the KOF Economic Barometer number at 4:00 along with the Spanish Flash CPI y/y number, but don't expect anything from either of those numbers. German Unemployment at 4:55 a.m. and finally some light at the end of the tunnel: the CAD drops their GDP m/m number at 8:30 a.m., and this is one of the very tradeable CAD numbers, so be ready for that one to bookend the otherwise mostly lackluster day of numbers.
USA Session: We finally get a number worth watching as well in the USA. the Core PCE Price Index number, the Fed's favorite inflationary gauge, arrives at 8:30 a.m. We had managed to end 2024 at .1% and started 2025 at .2% but last month went back up to .3% and that's the projection for today as well. This means there is still some inflation lurking around in the ecomony (yes, I said ecomony...I watched Idiocracy last week for about the 100th time) in spite of the otherwise cheery news we got from the CPI/PPI combo earlier this month. But a return to the Fed target of .2% would be another nail in the coffin of future rate hikes and put more pressure on Powell and the gang to cut rates at the next meeting. The other 8:30 news is irrelevant. It's all Core PCE this morning. At 10:00 we have the Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers, and while the Prelim numbers have a slight chance of moving price around if they contain any surprises, the Revised number almost never registers even a tremor in the markets. The Prelim number steals all the oxygen from the room on this one. The day ends with Fed Speak at 12:15 p.m. (Barr) and 3:45 p.m. (Bostic) and I have no intention of sticking around to see what they have to say.
Quick Note: Swiss, EU and GB clocks all Spring Forward this weekend, and the markets get back into their normal patterns as a result.
See you next week.
Jeff
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