Hi Folks.
Before I get started, a word of caution: There are at least two entries on this week's calendar that are just seriously out of place in terms of time. I'll point them out when I get to them in the Forecast, but what you need to do if you are trading this week is make sure you take a close look at the calendar before your trading day starts and confirm the times listed for all the entries. If these two entries are wrong, there could be others that don't stand out as much that are just as wrong and might end up causing some grief to the unaware traders.
Onward and upward.
SUNDAY: As usual, not much happening to kick off the week. The New Zealand report drops 15 minutes prior to the FX open, so you can safely ignore that one. Australia has a handful of reports at 7:00 and 7:30 p.m. my time, but none of them are noteworthy. Japan drops their Final Manufacturing PMI at 7:30 p.m. as well, but it has not shown much by way of price action agitation over the last few months, so I wouldn't expect much here either. And it is too early to be a part of tomorrow's flood of PMI numbers, so all in all, nothing is going on tonight that is worth trading.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Australia leads off with a Commodity Prices y/y report, but it too has not shown anything in terms of price action motivation, so pass on it. Then we get the flood of Final Manufacturing PMI numbers (Spain at 3:15 a.m., Swiss at 3:30 a.m., Italy at 3:45 a.m., France at 3:50 a.m., Germany at 3:55 a.m., EU at 4:00 a.m., Great Britain at 4:30 a.m. (along with Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals and New Lending to Individuals), and Canada at 9:30 a.m.. None of these numbers standing alone will do much if anything, but as always, pay attention to how the earlier numbers come out (better or worse than expected) and watch the EURUSD to see if a trend starts to develop. If so, jump in and hold on as long as you can. If not, there just aren't any trades that will come out of this. At 5:00 a.m. the EU also has Flash CPI numbers (core and overall) coming out. Last month the 1H candle after the release showed about 14 pips of activity in the hour, and the month before that about 18 pips. So it's not the worst I've ever seen but it isn't great either. So proceed with caution if you are trading this one. There are some evening numbers from New Zealand, Australia, Japan and Great Britain, but none of them have any sort of history of sparking any sort of tradeable price action.
USA Session: We start off with one of those out of place numbers I mentioned at the top of the page. At 12:05 a.m., Musalem from the US Fed is speaking at a Fed event in Washington D.C. A Fed event a few minutes after midnight in D.C. There is no one still awake at that time who will be sober enough to attend or remain awake for something like this. So this pretty much has to be a mistake unless the Fed has reverted back to Junior High and is holding slumber parties on the public dime. So look at the calendar and see if/when this entry is revised with a correct time. It might end up landing in a period when you are trading, and knowing when some Fed clown is out there jabbering while you are trading is a good idea if you like not seeing good trades fall apart for no good reason. The rest of the session is relatively quiet except for ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. (the generic version drops 15 minutes earlier, but no one cares...all eyes are on the ISM version). ISM Manufacturing Prices comes out with it, which is an inflation number, which is a topic moving back front and center with the Fed (replacing Unemployment, which replaced Inflation once they decided to lie and say inflation was "under control"). That floating Wards Total Vehicle Sales number is on tap as well, but that normally shows up late afternoon so don't worry about it.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again, a session of mostly nothing. A few unemployment numbers come out at 3:00, 4:00 and 5:00 a.m., but they've all been bad for so long, no one really takes notice of them any longer. In the evening session the only number of note will be the Aussie GDP q/q number at 7:30 p.m. my time. In the old days GDP usually meant price action, but the last two times this number made an appearance, the AUD/USD moved a total of 11 and 14 pips in the hour after release, so not one to pay attention to either. But there is another one of those oddball listings I mentioned, this one at 9:15 a.m. when Ueda from the Bank of Japan gives a speech at an International Monetary Fund event, in Tokyo. Tokyo, where 9:15 a.m. my time equates to 11:15 P.M. their time. Again, it's not going to happen. No one holds these kinds of events at or around midnight. So once again, since it involves the leader of the Japanese Fed speaking during trading hours, double check the calendar and make sure he isn't speaking when you are trading.
USA Session: The floating RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Report is set for some time during the morning. Usually this means around 10:00 a.m. (I think it came out around 10:06 or 10:07 a.m. the last couple of times it's been on calendar. Since we don't have a fixed time we can't do much with it, and honestly, even when it surprises us a few minutes after 10:00 I've been hard pressed to find any examples of price action inspired by the surprise appearance. Williams from the Fed speaks at 2:20 p.m. about who knows what. Just be aware he's out there if you trade in the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: The Swiss lead off with their CPI m/m at 2:30 a.m. my time, but Swiss CPI does not have the same effect as USD CPI. In fact, quite the opposite. Maybe 10 pips +/- of movement in the 30 minutes after release. Just not worth it. Then we get the Cavalcade of Services PMI numbers to pair up with Monday's Manufacturing versions. Spanish-3:15 a.m.; Italian 3:45 a.m.; French 3:50 a.m.; German 3:55 a.m., EU 4:00 a.m., and GB 4:30 a.m. Watch for the trend. Trade the trend or pass altogether. The EU has their PPI number at 5:00 but it does even less for the EUR than the USD version does for the Dollar. The Brits release their Monetary Policy Report at 9:30 a.m. but it isn't a tradeable number. We close out the evening session with a handful of garbage numbers.
USA Session: We lead off with ADP Non-Farm Payroll at 8:15, which likely won't generate much price action, at least not like in olden years, but it does give us some clues we can use come Friday this same time. 10:00 gives us the ISM Final Services PMI (regular run of the mill Services PMI drops at 9:45 but like its Manufacturing counterpart, seems to be universally ignored by traders waiting the extra 15 minutes for the ISM version). Crude Oil is at 10:30 and the Beige Book is released at 2:00 p.m. The Book isn't tradeable from our position (being retail peons) but it's worth reading to get some clues as to what if anything the Fed is thinking with another meeting just a few weeks away.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Mostly we start with nothing numbers, although the GBP Construction PMI number drops at 4:30 a.m. and I've mentioned before the UK is in some sort of housing crisis I don't quite understand, but from crisis comes opportunity, and since this is a tradeable number, it might be worth watching, even though historically it doesn't generate much by way of price action. Then at 8:15 a.m. the EU announces it's latest rate decision, which is projected to be another quarter point cut, from 2.90% down to 2.65%. Probably worth at least watching, since the previous rate cut generated almost 60 pips of movement on the EUR/USD in the hour after release. The CAD drops their Trade Balance number at 8:30 and the fact that pretty much most of the CAD numbers generate at least some price action on the CAD charts makes this one worth paying attention to.
USA Session: 7:30 a.m. brings the Challenger Job Cuts. Since none of the US markets are open yet, pass. 8:30 brings us Weekly First Time Unemployment Claims, along with some lesser numbers. Unemployment isn't moving the needle as much as it was a few months back when the Fed mentioned they were more worried about Unemployment than Inflation. A long series of terrible inflation numbers has knocked some sense back into their heads and traders have responded likewise. Unfortunately the rest of the day is a series of garbage numbers and Fed Speak (at 3:15 [GBP Fed], 3:30 and 7:00 p.m. [US Fed]).
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Garbage numbers the entire session, until you get to the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 8:30. The usual rules apply here for the CAD, which is anything CAD related tends to move the CAD pairs...
USA Session: Continuing on with the CAD...it will be helped mightily by the 8:30 Non-Farm Payroll and related reports set for release at the same time as the CAD numbers. It's NFP. The Prom Queen's crown may be a bit tarnished these days, but the report still generates some activity, even though oftentimes it is short lived. But once the impact from the NFP fades today, we have a short bus worth of Fed speak on tap at 10:15 a.m. (x two); 12:20, 12:30 (this one is Powell speaking at Univ. of Chicago at some event, but it does not appear that audience questions will be permitted, so probably not as big a deal as it could have been), and 1:00 p.m. We close the day at 3:00 with Consumer Credit, which has been a mainstay of the calendar for years but I don't think I've ever seen it come out or traded the aftermath, and since it is 3 o'clock on a Friday afternoon, I'd say you would be wise to not be trading it either.
See you back here next week.
Jeff
