Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: Typical Sunday night (aka Asia Open). A bunch of different numbers from Japan and Australia, most of which you can safely ignore. But at 7:30 p.m. my time Australia releases their Retail Sales m/m number, which in the previous 2 months missed estimates by a couple of points (last month expectation was 1% and it came in at .8, and generated 20+ pips downward action on the AUD/USD; two months ago expectations were .4%, it came in at .6% and only managed 11 pips over the next half hours...also a down move, so maybe it doesn't matter which side of the ledger the miss gets recorded). Anyway, there is some very minor history of at least some price action off the AUD Retail Sales number, so if you have to trade tonight, this one is likely your best bet.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: A ton of Final Manufacturing PMI numbers, which I'll get to shortly, but here is the other stuff first. EUR has their CPI y/y number (tracked monthly) at 5 :00 a.m. my time, and this one generates a little activity (at least it did last month...23 pips or something like that) and even the month before did more or less the same, but when it was released, the candle generated was actually one of the smaller ones on the day, so the EUR/USD was in play that day for other reasons than the CPI number, which usually lands pretty close to expectations. Nothing else really jumps out as being worth watching (or trading) either early or late. So the Final Mfg. PMI numbers...there are eight of them tonight, scattered over a 6 hour period: Spanish (3:15 a.m.), Swiss (3:30 a.m.), Italian (3:45 a.m.), French (3:50 a.m.) German (3:55 a.m.), EU (4:00 a.m.), GBP (4:40 a.m.), and Canadian (9:30 a.m.). Standing alone none of them are likely to do much, but once again, watch for a trend to develop on the EUR/USD if the early numbers come out all good or all bad, and the later numbers stick with the trend. And trade with whatever trend appears.
USA Session: An actual significant amount of US reports, odd for a Monday. The 9:45 Final Mfg. PMI number is generally ignored, but the 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing PMI (along with Prices) usually gets some attention and some resulting price action. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales number is a 'floater" so not much we can do with that one (and I finally went back and looked at a couple of previous number drops and at the EUR/USD charts for the same time and there was not much going on before, during or after, so if they ever start giving us a fixed release time, we can still ignore Wards). A Loan Officer Survey is labeled "tentative" so it might not drop today at all, which, like the Ward's number, won't matter because this is another one we could never see again and not miss a thing. Finally we have a couple of Fed Speak events (12:30 and 6:30 p.m.) so if you're trading during those times, beware.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Dead quiet overnight, with just a French and a Spanish number dropping at 2:45 and 3:00 a.m. my time and neither worthy of mention or concern. The NZD releases their GDT price Index number in the middle of the USA morning session, but it too is a floater and also universally ignored, so no worries there. However, at 4:45 p.m. my time, just minutes before the close, NZD releases their Unemployment Change number q/q, and last quarter the number missed to the downside (Exp. -.4, Act. -.5) and the NZD rose against the USD by 20 something pips. So this might be worth looking at if you're trading then. The rest of the night is just filler numbers, not designed to generate any price action, so shut it down after the NZD Unemployment number.
USA Session: The 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings might be worth following. It's not paired up with the ISM Mfg. PMI number this time, so it has to do all the heavy lifting on its own. But it can be worth 15-20 pips if the market is in the mood to trade. And given the lack of numbers today during Asia and London, this might get more attention than normal. No time given for the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Report, so that's a pass, although it tends to drop right after 10:00 a.m. (any time within 15 minutes after 10) but when it does appear we rarely notice any sort of response on the charts, so this is another one we can safely ignore. More Fed Speak at 11:00 a.m. and 1:15 p.m., so be aware it's out there.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: It's Groundhog Day, three days late. All numbers NOT named "Final Services PMI" can be ignored. As for the PMI's, they drop as follows: Spanish (3:15 a.m.), Italian (3:45 a.m.), French (3:50 a.m.), German (3:55 a.m.), EUR (4:00 a.m.), and GBP (4:30 a.m.). Same as two nights ago. Watch for a trend to develop, and if one does, ride the trend. Nothing in the evening half of this session looks noteworthy, so pass on the evening news trades.
USA Session: At 8:15 a.m. we get the ADP Non-Farm Employment number. It doesn't move the needle like it once did, but at least we get some idea of what we might see two days hence. And much like a couple of days ago, the Final Services PMI number at 9:45 a.m. can be ignored, but pay attention to the ISM Final Services PMI number at 10:00, because that could be the one everyone trades, if history teaches us anything. Crude Oil at 10:30 and a bunch of Fed Speak all day long (9:00 a.m., 1:00 p.m., 3:00 p.m., and 7:30 p.m.). As always, you can't trade it but you need to know when it's lurking around the corner, ready to screw up an otherwise perfectly good trade.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again the Asian/London Open is light on tradeable news. The calendar shows a GBP Construction PMI number as a mid-level report, and the Brits are somewhat mired in a housing problem (not enough of it, apparently) so this one could move the needle on a normal trading day, but that's unlikely today because at 7:00 a.m. my time the Brits announce their own Interest Rate decision, and since they aren't trying to torpedo their own leadership, they too are expected to cut their Overnight Rate by a quarter of a percent (from 4.75% down to 4.50%). This one should rule the early morning hours either by suppressing trade interest until the number drops or by spurring trade interest in those who think the GBP will react one certain way once the decision is released and they do their level best to get in early. Either way, I don't think much will happen with the GBP until after 7 a.m. my time. Later in the day (after 5 p.m. my time) the Japanese have a Household Spending number but it comes and goes each month without anyone giving it much notice.
USA Session: An early start at 7:30 a.m. with the Challenger Job cuts, and since the markets don't open until 8 a.m. at the earliest in the US, this one gets no play from anyone. At 8:30 we have the weekly First Time Unemployment claims. Last week I mentioned that number would be the one likely to show a big chunk of the Seasonal Employee layoffs, and it did exactly the opposite, coming in at 207k against an expectation of 224k, and resulting in the EUR/USD rising 50+ pips over the next 30 minutes. Today's number is expected at 214K, so who knows what will happen if we get two consecutive big misses. Not sure which way price will travel, but if we miss by 15-20K again, expect fireworks on the E/U. Nothing else worth trading today (NatGas at 10:30 and Fed Speak at 2:30 and 3:30 p.m.).
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: The early numbers out of Europe are just housecleaning type stuff and not likely to move any needles for our purposes. But at 8:30 a.m. the Canadians release their Employment Change and Unemployment Rate numbers, and like most upper level Canadian numbers, this one will likely shove the USD/CAD around all over the place. So if you trade the CAD, today is your day.
USA Session: We start off strong with Non Farm Payroll and the related reports at 8:30 a.m., and the numbers after that (Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, along with Final Wholesale Inventories, all at 10:00 a.m.) just aren't likely to attract a lot of action, given the NFP's presence earlier in the morning. Fed Speak at noon and a Consumer Credit number at 3:00 p.m. close out the day and hopefully you will be long gone from the charts by the time either of those make their scheduled appearance.
See you next week.
Jeff
