Subject: Econ Forecast for Dec. 23-27, 2024

Hi Folks.


Here is the econ forecast for Christmas week. You probably already know this but I'll say it anyway: Christmas week is the worst week for trading. Pretty much the entire western world just doesn't show up this week so volume is all but non-existent and price action will either be dead or so frantic from a few large accounts battling it out it just isn't worth the risk. So don't be afraid to keep your platform in the "off" position until next week (which honestly isn't a lot better but the day before New Year's can get active for tax reasons).


Anyway, here's the forecast.


MONDAY: 10:00 a.m.: Conference Board Consumer Confidence number. I've never been entirely certain who the Conference Board is or why they think we need to know about their numbers, but this is one you can safely ignore, especially this week.


TUESDAY: Here is the day where we try and jam in as much as possible so everyone involved can take the rest of the week off. 8:30 is the Durable Goods numbers (Core and Overall). It dropped from red to Beige folder status a number of months ago, likely because traders more or less ignore this one. I know I do. Then at 10:00 a.m. we get New Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Home Sales numbers are also generally ignored, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index is the second tier Manufacturing number (behind Philly Fed but ahead of Empire State), and has been so bad for so long no one even bothers to look at it any longer. Maybe that will change after Jan. 20th, but I wouldn't bet money on that. And why are you trading on Christmas Eve? Shut 'er down and go spend some time with family and/or friends. Or be like me and ignore everybody and just read a good book.


WEDNESDAY: Christmas Day. Merry Christmas from me and mine to you and yours if you celebrate the holiday.


THURSDAY: Civilized western countries take the day after Christmas off for what is called Boxing Day, a day where people would box up items they did not want or need and give them to others. The USA's contribution to Boxing Day is we give you the Weekly Unemployment number at 8:30, followed by the Crude Oil number at 11:00. Considering the rest of The West is closed for the day, don't expect either number to do much no matter how close to or far away from the expectation the number may land.


FRIDAY: To close the week we have the Goods Trade Imbalance number at 8:30, along with Preliminary Wholesale Inventories m/m, followed by NatGas at 10:30 (NatGas and Crude are both a Day late because of the Christmas holiday). None of these are worth trading, and hopefully if you are reading this on Sunday the 22nd, you'll see why I say take the week off.


Back next week with another truncated forecast (thanks to New Year's Day).


And again, Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.


Jeff


Powered by:
GetResponse
    Loading...