Hi Folks.
Here is this week's US based Forecast.
MONDAY: Lots of news scheduled for today but only a few entries from the US. We start at 9:45 a.m. with the Final Manufacturing PMI, which rarely ever generates any price action, regardless of the number posted. But at 10:00 a.m. we get ISM Manufacturing PMI, along with Manufacturing Prices (an inflation gauge) and Construction Spending (only of interest to the people spending money on Construction). The combination of the PMI number plus the Spending number will likely make a few things happen, particularly after a long holiday weekend (yes, there was trading on Friday but a quick glance at the price action is a good indicator no one showed up to place any trades). A couple of Fed Speak events at 3:15 and 4:30, neither of which present us with anything tradeable.
TUESDAY: JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00. That's really it. A lot of months you'll find JOLTS combined with ISM Manufacturing (yesterday's big number) but today it has to carry the load all by it's lonesome. A year ago I would ignore this number simply because the market did likewise, but with the Fed's pivot to Employment issues as its guidepost for rate decisions, we have to start taking it a bit more seriously. So be ready in the event the market does as well. Aside from JOLTS, we also have two floaters (RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism and Wards Total Vehicle Sales) but with no fixed time set for their release (and both having a bad habit of not releasing on the first day it appears on the calendar) we can safely ignore. 2 Fed Speak entries at 12:35 and 3:45...and again, we can't really trade these events but you should pay attention to the times they are scheduled since a comment from a Fed Speaker could roil the markets and if you have an open trade at the time you could end up as the beneficiary or the victim, so pay attention.
WEDNESDAY: Big day today. ADP Nonfarm Payroll drops at 8:15 a.m. This one hasn't shaken the markets quite as much as it used to (neither has the NFP for that matter) but you still could see a tiny fireworks show, depending on how far the number strays from expectations. Final Services PMI at 9:45 ( no one cares) followed by ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders at 10:00 (this one will move things around some so it's worth watching). Crude Oil at 10:30 and Fed Head Powell himself is set to participate in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit, whatever that means. For us it means the market will be scrutinizing every word spoken by the Grand Poobah, in hopes of discerning the Fed's next move at the end of December. Likely few if any of us will be trading then, but be aware the market tends to get a wee bit irrational (more so than usual) when Powell speaks. So be aware. And coincidentally enough, the Beige Book (the Fed's group analysis of economic conditions in each of the Fed districts) drops at 2:00 p.m. Not much of a deal any more, but with Powell speaking more or less at the same time it might be worth watching. But not trading.
THURSDAY: We start early with the Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30 a.m. It's a pass for me, but I do try to find trades in the 7:00-8:00 a.m. period for Oil and Gold, so any number that drops during that hour I do pay attention to. But so far (meaning over the last couple of years) I haven't noticed any unusual price action when this number is released. 8:30 a.m. brings Unemployment Claims and the Trade Imbalance number. The closer we get to the next Fed meeting (Wednesday, December 18) the more impact the Unemployment number could have on price action. Since the next meeting is just a couple of weeks away it's probably time to start paying attention to the Unemployment number once again. 10:30 is NatGas and that wraps up Thursday with no Fed Speak to worry about, at least as far as I can see.
FRIDAY: Since ADP dropped Wednesday, that means 8:30 a.m. is the Nonfarm Payroll number along with Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate (which is an annual number but posted monthly). Not as big a deal as it once was, the NFP can still surprise us on occasion with some significant price action, both at 8:30 when the number drops ang again at 9:30 when the Indices open. So even though it's lost a bit of its luster, it's still worth watching and trading. 10:00 a.m. brings the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers, neither of which do much for us on the charts, and we close the week at 3:00 p.m. with the Consumer Credit number (also a non-event). Lots of Fed Speak today at 9:15, 10:30, 12:00 and 1:00. All not tradeable, but as always, make a note to yourself that it is happening since most of it lands during some prime trading hours and could have some sort of impact should one or more of those clowns say something stupid.
Back next week with more.
Jeff
