Hi Folks.

Not much to say this week, as you'll see, so let's get this over with.

MONDAY: A couple of entries starting the week, but they may as well have not bothered. 9:15 we have Waller from the Fed speaking, giving the opening remarks at some workshop. Zero chance this will generate anything, for reasons I'll get into on Thursday. At 10, the Conference Board Leading Index number. This one has never with a capital N done anything to move price around, but we almost always see a price bump happen at 10 a.m., news or no news, so if you see your charts scoot up a few points at the top of the hour, it was always expected and it wasn't the CB Index number that caused it.

TUESDAY: Two more Fed monkeys (Bostic and Barr) speaking at 1:35 and 2:45 p.m. respectively. Bostic at some sort of Fireside Chat (a little hot right now for that sort of activity, but whatever...Audience Questions are expected but again, don't count on anything coming from it) and Barr jabbering at some Cybersecurity Conference. Two Fed events = zero price action we can trade.

WEDNESDAY: Crude Oil at 10:30 and the Fed will release the minutes from their last meeting at 2 p.m. The information in the meeting minutes will be worth reading, but as far as being tradeable, not so much. If there is anything in those minutes that gives traders either hope or despair regarding a rate cut in September, you'll know when prices make a sudden spike move with zero warning. That means untradeable as well.

THURSDAY: Another big news Thursday (two weeks in a row) starting with the Weekly Unemployment number at 8:30. This one stays off of everyone's radar until the number spikes up like it did 2 or 3 weeks back, and suddenly everyone will be watching. If the number comes in on target or even below, it likely won't create much activity. But if the number comes in higher by say 5% or more, expect to see some big moves in the US30 and S&P, maybe even the NAS. These markets are jonesing for a rate cut and any data that leans in the direction of nudging the Fed to cut rates will inspire all sorts of price action (and the direction of that action will likely be UP). But a number that lands as expected will be summarily ignored like usual. 9:45 is Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI numbers, and both are on the 50 scale, meaning Above 50 Good, Below 50 Bad. Both are expected to come in lower than last month, with Manufacturing below 50 and Services above. Both tend to move the markets so be ready for this one. Existing Home Sales at 10 will get the benefit of the 10 o'clock bump but little else, Nat Gas at 10:30, and finally, the reason why the earlier Fed Monkey speechifying won't make any difference, today is Day One of the annual Fed Summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the press and Wall Street both are expecting a speech from Powell on what to expect in the coming months with 3 meetings left on the Fed schedule (Sept. 18, Nov. 7 and Dec. 18). Anything anyone else on the Fed Board says prior to Thursday will not carry any weight as it has to come from Jerome's lips before anyone will believe it. So if you see your charts suddenly go from sedate to bat guano crazy on Thursday or Friday, you can bet you ass, your house cat and your cowboy hat that Jerome has spoken from on high and the market has responded accordingly.

FRIDAY: New Home Sales at 10 (no one cares) and Jerome has a scheduled appointment with the press and those attending the Fed Summit at the exact same time. So if you are trading at 10 on Friday, be aware prices could take off in either direction depending on what sort of wisdom Powell shares with Summit attendees. High Risk, low reward trading at that point so just be a spectator until you know for certain he's shut the hell up.

And that's it for the week. See you back here next week.

Jeff