Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: Nothing. It's still the Easter holiday, although there are a couple of rogue Chinese numbers set to drop at 9:00 p.m. my time. Good luck with those should you find a broker that is open.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Easter Monday means most of the non-USA markets are still closed. The IMF will be meeting all day (sinners!) and New Zealand drops their Trade Balance number at 6:45 p.m. It won't have much of an effect as (1) it rarely if ever does, and (2) people won't quite have the rust from the 4 day weekend knocked off enough to do much trading yet.
USA Session: 10:00 a.m. brings us the Conference Board Leading Index number, which is the functional equivalent of saying "No News Today".
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Japan gets us started for real with their Core CPI y/y number, but historically, this one doesn't do a whole lot. Over the last 3 months, the J-CPI has come in 2/10ths of a percent higher than expected and the related 30M candle has moved 17, 20 and 12 pips over 30 minutes after the number dropped. Not the worst I ever saw, but not great either. The one thing it has going for it is this marks the true beginning of trading after the holiday, so it might draw a bit more attention from trade-starved traders. But if you miss it, don't give it too much thought. There are better opportunities coming up this week. After the Japanese number, we get the CAD one-two punch of IPPI and RMPI (not exactly the CPI but manufacturing related, which is something of a minor biggie in Canada) so be ready for this one, CAD Watchers. Everything else is Yellow Folder and not worth mentioning, except we get the Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI numbers from Australia tonight at 7:00 p.m. my time. As I've mentioned before with this set of numbers from Australia, they don't really move the AUD much, if any, but they do give you a sort of heads-up as to what you might expect from the boatload of similar numbers coming out tomorrow across the globe.
USA Session: Fed Speak starts the morning at 9:00 (Jefferson) and 9:30 (Harker) a.m. At 10:00, FF has once again mysteriously crowned the Richmond Manufacturing Index with Beige folder status. It isn't a Beige number. Hell, it barely qualifies as a Yellow Folder number the way the market ignores it. Today will likely be no exception. The day closes out at 4:30 after the relevant market has closed with the American Petroleum Institute's Weekly Statistical Bulletin.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Here is where the rest of the world catches up with the Aussies with a series of PMI number drops (both Manufacturing and Services): 3:15 a.m. (France); 3:30 a.m. (Germany); 4:00 a.m. (Euro Union); 4:30 a.m. (Great Britain). All red folders and you could see some activity on the EUR and GBP depending on the outcomes, but the real value lies in spotting an early trend and riding it through the session. So watch the French and German numbers for really good or really bad numbers and see if a trend develops you can follow through the EU and GBP numbers. The CAD has a New Home Price Index measuring the cost of new housing to the Buyer, which might move the CAD around at least a little bit. Some British Fed Speak at 1:15 p.m. (Bailey) and 2:00 p.m. (Breeden), and the rest of the calendar is basically Yellow Folder trash.
USA Session: For the second day in a row we start with Fed Speak: 9:00 a.m. (Goolsbee) and 9:30 a.m. (Waller), followed by the US version of the Flash numbers at 9:45 a.m. Also red-foldered and both hitting at the same time, these could give us something worth trading, so be ready. New Home Sales is another mis-colored report (Beige instead of Yellow, so ignore it); Crude Oil at 10:30 a.m., the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. (sometimes the source of a little price action, but that one seems to be hit or miss, so be careful should you decide to risk any real money on this one); and we close the day the same way we started, with more Fed Speak (Hammack) at 6:30 p.m.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: 4:00 a.m. brings us the German ifo Business Climate numbers, which really doesn't move the EUR much at all, at least the times I've gone back and looked (like 5 minutes ago). It generally supports a 10-20 pip move, mostly the former, and there doesn't seem to be much relation to whether the number is good or bad correlating with price direction. So proceed at your own risk. The Brits have the CBO Industrial Order Expectation number, which also doesn't have much history in terms of moving things around. Pretty much the rest of the day, morning and evening, is Yellow Folder dreck, but at 7:30 p.m. the Tokyo Core CPI number drops. Much like the German ifo number that leads us off, this one doesn't do a lot for the Yen, but the moves are in the 15-20 pip range lately, so maybe if you are really looking for something to trade during the Asian session, this one might be worth it as long as you manage your expectations. That means if you trade it and see +20, give serious thought to bailing at that point.
USA Session: 8:30 starts us off with both First Time Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders (Core and Overall). As noted previously, Unemployment has lost a little of its shine since the Fed is pivoting back to Inflation Fighting. Durable Goods has been the ugly stepsister to the CPI/PPI combo, not doing much to price action in January and March, but in February, when teamed with the GDP number (which came out exactly on target) the .2% drop in the Core number combined with the 1.1% increase in the overall number spurred on a 70 pip run. Today we just pair up with Unemployment, so pay attention to the number...should a miss be huge in either direction, get ready to fire in some trades. At 10:00 a.m. yet another FF mystery as Existing Home Sales is awarded Beige Folder status. No housing number deserves anything other than Yellow, so ignore this one. NatGas closes the day at 10:30 a.m.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: The Brits get us started at 2:00 a.m. with Retail Sales and the CAD follows with the same at 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales doesn't do much for the USD when it drops locally, but the British and Canadian versions tend to move their respective currencies around by a lot. So both of these are worth watching/trading. A British Fed Clown closes out the day at 10:15 a.m.
USA Session: The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations numbers drop at 10:00 a.m. Few traders take this stuff seriously, but today, these are the only numbers for the entire USA session, so they might punch above their weight class for a change. Not likely, but the possibility does still exist. If you aren't sure what to do, taking the day off is always a viable option, and everyone loves a three day weekend.
See you back here next week.
Jeff
