Hi Folks.
A relatively quiet but significant week ahead for economic news, but first, a HUGE thank you to all who bought Renko Wave and helped fund a donation to Chang, one of my coders, so he could move his family into a safer dwelling after a series of earthquakes damaged his apartment and made it unsafe to remain. Because of you I was able to send him $4100 to fund the move and get a non-leaking roof over his head.
You guys are the absolute greatest and I'm glad to have every single one of you as a part of my trading family.
If you missed out on the fundraiser, any sales I make hereafter I will still send to Chang to help him along. The webpage is at https://simplicators.com/renkowave if you want to contribute and pick up a pretty good little indicator to use on Renko charts.
Now, on to the news.
MONDAY: A slow start to the week with Final Wholesale Inventories at 10 a.m. and Consumer Credit at 3 p.m. Neither are numbers worth trading, although the Inventories number hits at 10 a.m. and we will usually see a bump in price right at 10, but that happens almost every day at the same time, so Inventories has no part in it.
TUESDAY: A 6:00 a.m. number today (NFIB Small Business Index) which is going to hit without me being here to watch it. I did go back and look at a couple of charts when this one came out previously, and couldn't see any evidence it had any impact at all. At 10 we have Barr from the Fed speaking at the Brookings Institute about Basel III, which is an international accord regulating Banking which was passed in 2009 in response to the 2007-2008 banking/housing crisis. There are audience questions expected and we do have the Fed Meeting next Wednesday, so this may end up creating a minor firestorm at some point. Since we don't know the exact moment that might/could happen, we can't trade it. But be aware it's a possibility if you're taking any post 10 a.m. eastern trades. You could find yourself on the wrong side of a very big and unexpected move.
WEDNESDAY: 8:30 a.m. we have CPI m/m and y/y. The last real inflation number the Fed looks at (along with PPI) before next Wednesday's meeting. If the number comes out at or lower than the expectations (.2% for Core and Overall and 2.6% for y/y, down from 2.9% last month) expect the markets to celebrate, especially after Friday ended in a selloff for the US30 (opened Sunday night at 42580, closed Friday afternoon at 40264, a drop of 2316 points or 5.4%). A low CPI will all but cement a rate cut on the 18th. Crude Oil at 10:30 for those of you who trade Oil and the 10y Bond Auction at 1:01 (not a tradable event).
THURSDAY: 8:30 we have both PPI and Unemployment Claims, both of which the Fed will be watching as well. But since the PPI is hitting a day after CPI, as it normally does, it likely won't generate a lot of activity no matter what the number looks like. The Unemployment number, as I have noted previously, is what the Fed says they are really looking at for the moment, so a number higher than projections (229k) will be just more reason for the Fed to cut and may even add weight to the arguments some Fed Governors are making for a half point rate cut instead of the typical quarter point. That will really shake up the markets should we see .5 instead of .25 show up Wednesday at 2 p.m. NatGas at 10:30 and the 30y Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. Same non-tradeable event as yesterday.
FRIDAY: A quiet end to the week with Import Prices at 8:30 (nobody trades this) and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers.
Given we have CPI on Wednesday and PPI/Unemployment on Thursday I wouldn't expect these numbers to have any impact either. Mostly just trader exhaustion after what I expect to be 2 pretty busy days. Friday may just end up being a breather as traders get geared up for next week's big event.
See you next week.
Jeff
