EURUSD
BUY 1.1404 SL 1.1371 TP1 1.1429 TP2 1.1449
SELL 1.1353 SL 1.1385 TP1 1.1327 TP2 1.1307
EURJPY
BUY 128.21 SL 128.02 TP1 128.38 TP2 128.48
SELL 127.91 SL 128.10 TP1 127.75 TP2 127.64
USDJPY
BUY 112.69 SL 112.51 TP1 112.83 TP2 112.94
SELL 112.41 SL 112.59 TP1 112.27 TP2 112.16
GBPUSD
BUY 1.4383 SL 1.4351 TP1 1.4408 TP2 1.4428
SELL 1.4333 SL 1.4365 TP1 1.4308 TP2 1.4288
CADJPY
BUY 86.83 SL 86.46 TP1 87.13 TP2 87.36
SELL 86.25 SL 86.62 TP1 85.96 TP2 85.72
NEWS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
Thu Mar 31
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
6:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 53.5
7:50pm JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 8 12
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 24 25
9:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.3 49.0
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.7
9:45pm CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.3 48.0
10:00pm JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 49.1 49.1
Fri Apr 1
1:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y -21.6%
2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.5% 0.3%
3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.5% 0.2%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.8 54.1
3:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.6
3:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.2
3:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.6
3:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 50.4 50.4
4:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.4
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.5% 11.5%
4:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.4 50.8
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 10.3% 10.3%
8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% -0.1%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 206K 242K
USD Unemployment Rate 4.9% 4.9%
9:30am CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI 49.4
9:45am USD Final Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.4
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.8 49.5
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 90.6 90.0
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.2% 1.5%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 44.5 38.5
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.6M 17.5M
12:00pm USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
DAILY RECAP
USDJPY: Buy -25 Sell -25
EURUSD: Buy +37 (+21 TP1) Sell -26
EURJPY: Buy +47 (26 TP1) Sell -33
GBPUSD: Buy b/e (+24 TP1) Sell -31
CADJPY: Buy +27 (+17 TP1 Sell b/e (+17 TP1)
Three wins (37 + 47 + 27) = =111, minus five losses (25 + 25 + 37 + 31 + 26 ) = -140, for a net loss of -29 on the day. TP1 picked up five winners (21 + 26 + 24 + 17 + 17) = +105 for a net loss of -35.
Day: -29 pips
Week: +32 pips
Month: -77 pips
A less than stellar night last night, but not entirely unexpected given the nature of the news (the abundance of CPI reports worldwide brought the expected yawn from traders, while the 8:30 US/Canadian news actually gave us, or at least contributed to, all three wins). Given this was NFP eve, we'll just have to accept it and move on.
And on the subject of NFP, tomorrow is the day, so typically we would not see a lot of action in the pairs until just before 8:30 am eastern, when traders begin setting up trades to take advantage of what they believe will be the market reaction once the news breaks.
However, this NFP eve is chock full of decent news reports for a change, including Chinese manufacturing PMI numbers, which have given us some very nice scores in the past. Japan also has a couple of manufacturing PMIs as well, so before midnight we could be looking a several closed trades, hopefully all at TP2.
As for the NFP tomorrow, the expectation is 200k jobs added (not that those are real jobs, mind you...Commerce uses this ridiculous birth/death algorithm to “guesstimate” the number of jobs created, instead of actually bothering to find out what the real number is...this explains why we have 90+ million people of working age out of jobs [roughly 20% of the working age population] and a Commerce Department Certified unemployment rate of only 4.9%)
I've said it before and I'll say it again. If I submitted numbers like that to any government agency, using the kind of fantasy compilation tatctics they themselves use, they would bury me under the nearest jail and pipe sunlight down to me for the rest of my natural days.
But the entire trading world loves them some NFP numbers, so trade we must.
However, please note how I traditionally trade the NFP. I look at the charts around 7 am eastern (90 minutes before the NFP numbers are released) and check the location of current price versus any unexecuted trades. If price is close, which typically means between TP2 of the opposite trade and the entry price, I take the trade down then and wait until the NFP numbers get over all the whipsawing and madness. If there looks like a chance price could still move in the right direction and get into the trade, I will put the trade up a few minutes after 8:30 am. If price has moved a significant distance from the entry and is moving further away, I leave the trade off for the weekend.
This way I am not in an open trade just prior to NFP when increased spreads and whipsaws can turn an otherwise winning trade into a loser.
The usual scenario where I put the trade back up is when price moves away from my entry right at 8:30, whipsaws around a bit without getting to my entry, then begins what looks like a sustained move in my direction. I have seen this happen about a half dozen times over the last year and won most of them.
I will leave it to the individual trader how you handle your own trades, but since I keep track of these trades publicly, I want you to understand how I proceeed on these types of days so there is less confusion should your results and mine not match up.
