And if you think we have high energy prices right now check out what one trader is expected for energy prices. Samantha LaDuc sees oil hitting $160 this summer and $260 within a year. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20220506158/this-trader-predicted-the-bond-meltdown-tech-selloff-and-oils-surge-heres-what-she-says-is-coming-next
She's not the only one thinking we are in for extremely tight markets for energy. Many are expecting the result of almost 10 years of low reserve development will lead to all time record prices for oil, natural gas and coal. It's all about supply and demand. Demand continues to grow and now supply will have to catch up if we want to see and relief in prices. Remember all the headlines and talking heads proclaiming the death of the fossil fuel industry? Those investors that understood the data and positioned themselves properly are now reaping the investment rewards and likely will for many more years.
And speaking of supply and demand.... As a director of Atlas Engineered Products, I've been having quite a few conversations about interest rates, housing and what could happen in the Canadian construction industry. It is to be expected that higher rates will dampen sales and prices. House prices in most Canadian cities seemed to have defied gravity for as long as most people can remember. I do expect prices will soften but I don't think we will see strong price declines like many are predicting. There is just too much of a shortage of housing units and we continue to struggle in keeping up with household formation and immigration. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has reported that "Supply is the biggest issue affecting housing affordability in Canada". https://financialpost.com/news/economy/supply-is-the-biggest-issue-affecting-housing-affordability-in-canada-cmhc-finds
According to Bob Schickedanz, president of the Ontario Home Builders’ Association, said the new home construction industry faces challenges including access to land, labour, infrastructure, and supplies. “The province anticipates 2.27 million more people to call Ontario home in the next ten years and it’s an economic and social imperative that we have the resources, and development approvals system in place which is needed to construct at least one million homes in the next decade to meet this anticipated demand,” he said.
As investors it's important that we look at and understand the data. Go past the headlines and dig deeper. |