Subject: Smallcap Discoveries: Weekly Update: January 29 - February 2

January 29 - February 2

Market Commentary

Markets

 

Another week, another set of new all-time highs for both the DOW and Nasdaq. Some strong earnings reports were enough to shake off any concerns that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer. The DOW ended the week up another 1.4%, Nasdaq gained 1.1% and the TSX, weighed down by oil stocks retreated by 0.2% 

Financials

Treasury yields were well on their way lower until the US jobs data report on Friday. US employment data for January came in stronger than expected resulting in a sharp jump in treasury yields. The US economy continues to show signs of strength which gives the Fed no immediate concern about a slowing US economy and thus allows them to be a bit more diligent against inflation. Investors are going to have to wait a bit longer before the Fed moves to lower interest rates.

Canadian bond yields continue to follow US yields and while the trend was lower for most of the week, Canadian bond yields followed their US counterparts sharply higher on Friday. 

The US economy continues to be the global workhorse and is currently controlling Canadian interest rates even though there are clear signs that the Canadian economy is not keeping pace with the US. The Bank of Canada will likely need to make some hard choices in the coming months as it will be difficult to maintain tighter rates in parallel with the US if the economy in Canada falls further. The Canadian dollar will be the canary in the coal mine. For now it seems to be holding steady.

Commodities

 

Just when oil bulls thought they had their mojo back oil prices retreated back sharply below $75 for WTI.

Once again data showing the Chinese economy slowing outweigh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. WTI oil closed the week back down at $72.36 per barrel.

 

The gold price managed to stay buoyant this past week. Gold futures closed the week at roughly $2057 per ounce.

Stocks

 

Major US equity markets have been on fire since the October 2023 lows. The DOW has gained 19.6% since October and Nasdaq is up a whopping 30.2%. The TSX has been the laggard gaining 12.8% since the lows in October 2023. These are outstanding returns in such a short period of time. Remember, historically equity markets gain about 7% on average per year. You’d be crazy to expect markets to continue at this torrid pace without a very meaningful pullback.

The S&P 500 currently trades at a PE multiple of 26.91. Google (Alphabet) trades with a 24.75 multiple. Does the market feel like it should be trading at these types of valuations?

The current PE ratio for the overall market has been significantly higher, and significantly lower in the past, so it’s anybody’s guess where it should be right now. But as I’ve said before, if you spend too much time trying to determine the direction of the big markets you may lose sight of the opportunities in the smaller markets and in individual stocks.

 

Good quality small stocks have been trading at lower valuation metrics than larger stocks for quite some time now, and Canadian stocks continue trading cheaper than US stocks as a whole. We’ve seen a spectacular move in many of these smaller names that we follow but even still, many of them still look cheaper than their big brethren. Opportunities are available but there are nowhere near as many great opportunities as we were seeing this time last year. I continue to feel it’s time to be a bit more cautious in general. Big sharp moves in big markets along with strong moves in most of the small companies we follow just makes me a bit nervous. I’m not afraid to cash up a little, sell some of the sharp spikes in price and be a bit more patient on some bids.

There is lots of stuff moving higher. We are seeing a growing list of stocks we own and follow moving rapidly higher with many hitting new 52-week, multi-year and even all-time highs in price. As I’ve been stating for some time now, we were seeing conditions setting up for some of our stocks to have “face ripping rallies” and some have done just that. 

 

Look at some of these charts:

 

Here’s one of our recent Cheapies with a Chance stocks, Nova Cannabis, NOVC.T.

Or Renoworks Software RW.V., up 150% in one month.

Or monster mover ADF Group, (DRX.T), one of our takeover candidates list stocks, up 291% in just over a year.

Of course there is Thermal Energy (TMG.V) as well, now up 124% since we highlighted it in September 2023.

Here’s the list of other stocks on our portfolios and watch lists that are hitting new 52 week highs this past week. It seems that this weekly list is growing larger every week. Gatekeeper Systems, (GSI.V), Biorem Inc (BRM.V), McCoy Global (MCB.T), Sylogist (SYZ.T), Foraco (FAR.T), Payfare (PAY.T), Hammond Mfg (HMM.a.T), Kraken Robotics (PNG.V), California Nano (CNO.C), Grown Rogue (GRIN.C). What these companies all have in common are that they are profitable, growing and many are still too small for the institutional buyer to pay attention.

 

We finally have a bull market in these types of stocks.

 

The small supply of these kinds of companies and their small market caps means that any meaningful capital that comes into this sector of the market has a huge impact. Small supply and growing demand equals higher prices and in some cases, much higher prices. And I think this is just getting started. I know this because I’m just now starting to hear from my institutional contacts.

 

Institutional buyers, the big capital allocators, are starting to come down market. The liquidity flywheel is starting to turn. When fund managers see a stock like DRX.T make the move its made they come looking for the next one and as they start to buy and increase price and liquidity it brings more players into the market. And as liquidity down market improves it brings even more buyers. That small company that couldn’t seem to get a double digit PE ratio even though it’s growing at high double digit growth rates all of a sudden looks pretty cheap to an institutional buyer when he/she compares it to one of his larger slow growing companies.


It may still be mostly anecdotal but my phones are ringing again. It’s brokers and old industry colleagues that want to know what the next hot microcap might be.

 

There is a massive amount of cash sitting on the sidelines, some of it is sitting in big stocks and ETFs. If even just a small fraction of that capital is brave enough to make it into this microcap universe of ours it will have massive impacts on share price.

 

You think we’ve had a decent past year with these profitable and growing microcaps? If I’m right and this microcap bull market is just getting off the ground, you ain’t seen nothing yet!

 

Yes, I’m very bullish for our sector (profitable, growing Canadian microcaps) longer term but I know nothing goes straight up and I’m happy to be a bit lazier here. Yes, we need to be ready and be very aggressive on new, undiscovered ideas but with established positions I think we can afford to be a bit more cautious and wait for pullbacks to add.

 

I’m happy to wait for dips and will even sell some shares on sharp spikes. We’ll get some great buying opportunities as this microcap bull market grows legs but we need to remember to be greedy when others are fearful and a bit fearful when others are greedy. 

 

Other Stuff

 

"Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise." Peter Lynch. 

I was extremely happy to see an insider buying a significant amount of shares on one of my high conviction stocks Thermal Energy (TMG.V). I view this as an extremely bullish signal. I managed to buy some on a dip in price on Friday before this trade was reported.

 

Our takeover list stocks as a group are now up 83.8% in large part to the big move in ADF Group (DRX.T) up 291%, but honourable mention goes to Hammond Mfg (HMM.a.T) up 186% and Total Telcom (TTZ.V) up 164%.

 

This week I’ll be watching BeWhere (BEW.V) for a possible add. Stock has pulled back nicely from its recent high and may give us a bit of a chance to buy ahead of their $0.33 warrant expiration this month. There is a number of cheaper (in the money) broker warrants that may be being sold/exercised right now causing the weakness in price.

I’m also keeping a close eye on Canadabis Capital (CANB.V). Lots of cannabis stocks have been moving higher of late and seems to be a bit more positive sentiment around the sector, at least for those with some decent fundamentals. I’ve also seen a few financings again in the space. CANB.V looks cheap enough to deserve some attention.

We had a good update zoom call with Derek Webb from Biorem Inc, (BRM.V) so check it out if you can.

 

To your wealth,

 

Paul and Trevor

Buys and Sells This Week

This Weeks Buys and Sells

 

Added some Thermal Energy (TMG.V) @ $0.255

Sold some Renoworks (RW.V) @ $0.30

Sold some Immunoprecise Antibodies (IPA) @ US$1.875

Added NameSilo (URL.C) @ $0.22

Bought Gatekeeper Systems (GSI.V) @ $0.61

Smallcap Discoveries


Select SEDAR+ Weekly Highlights

BluMetric Environmental (TSX.V: BLM) Price - $0.39 Market Cap - $11.5M

NextLeaf Solutions (CSE: OILS) Price - $0.09 Market Cap - $13M

Exco Technologies (TSX.V: XTC) Price - $7.60 Market Cap - $295M

Gatekeeper Systems (TSX.V: GSI) Price - $0.65 Market Cap - $60M

Telescope Innovations (CSE: TELI) Price - $0.40 Market Cap - $21.5M

Cannara Biotech (TSX.V: LOVE) Price - $0.88 Market Cap - $79M

  • Cannara Biotech Announces Record-Breaking Q1 2024 Results: Continued Robust Growth and Market Expansion

  • Revenue of $19.5M

  • Operating income of $3.4M

  • Net income of $2.1M

Aurora Spine Corporation (TSX.V: ASG) Price - $0.37 Market Cap - $28

Nanalysis (TSX.V: NSCI) Price - $0.52 Market Cap - $53M

Renoworks Sofware (TSX.V: RW) Price - $0.27 Market Cap - $11M

Simply Better Brands (TSX.V: SBBC) Price - $0.20 Market Cap - $14.5M

Indigo Books & Music (TSX: IDG) Price - $2.16 Market Cap - $60M

Company Interviews & Updates

Upcoming

Topic: Fab-Form (TSX.V: FBF) Interview with CEO Joey Fearn

Time: Feb 8, 2024 01:15 PM Vancouver


Join Zoom Meeting

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Meeting ID: 896 0176 7488

Passcode: 596679



Topic: Britanna Life Sciences (CSE: BLAB) Interview with CEO Peter Shippen

Time: Feb 8, 2024 09:00 AM Vancouver


Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82677408567?pwd=ZFlFSUZjNjFLbkczVGN2b01nU0xtQT09


Meeting ID: 826 7740 8567

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