Subject: Smallcap Discoveries: Weekly Update: December 5 - 9

December 5 - 9

Market Commentary

Markets

It was a down week for markets. Stronger than expected US economic data including labour, ISM and PPI data raised fears of the US Fed keeping rates tighter for longer were enough for investors to sell equities down. The US Fed and ECB are both expected to make a decision next week on further rate hikes.

Inflation continues to move in the right direction but still not fast enough to lower the risk of stickiness. Input costs are dropping rapidly but the lag in finished goods is enough to keep overall inflation too high for the Fed’s liking.


Nasdaq led the way lower by 4.0%, the Dow was down 2.8% and the TSX was lower by 2.6%.

Energy

WTI oil reached its lowest level of 2022 this past week closing at $71.58. It is now down 22% since the commencement of the Ukraine conflict and down 45% in March. Ongoing concerns over weaker demand due to global economic slowdowns have pushed oil prices very near the $70 level which is where the Biden administration has stated they would look to begin replenishing their strategic petroleum reserves.

Energy stocks had one of their weakest weeks in quite some time with the XLE ETF down 8.4%.

While oil itself has done a complete round trip in price back to where it was a year ago energy producer stocks are up about 50% in that time and now some are calling for a long oil/short oil stock trade believing oil has gone down too much and oil stocks are too high to the price of the underlying commodity. Most energy companies took advantage of higher prices this year to dramatically strengthen their balance sheets, and many were aggressively buying back their own shares so you would think that the companies are better protected to lower energy prices.

Meanwhile North American drilling activity continues to be robust. A net of 3 more rigs were active this past week, with Canada gaining 7 rigs and the US was lower by 4 rigs.


Commodities

All commodity investor’s eyes continue to be on the US dollar. The weakening dollar has been giving commodity prices a bit more of a bid. China’s lifting of several covid restrictions and calls more easing has also improved the outlook for their economy and bolstered most industrial and housing related metals. Copper was firmer this past week as was nickel and zinc.


Precious metals were mostly flat with gold being able to hold the $1800 level to close the week at $1809.40.

Stocks

2022 has been a stock picker’s market.

As I have been saying for quite some time, the smaller, less well-known stocks have been outperforming the well-known names as well as the overall market. New leadership is taking over and those investors that can identify new leadership are doing better than most market mirroring ETF’s. This is not a time to just buy the market and relax. A recession is very likely on its way. Most stocks will not do well in a slowing economy. Shifts in the economy will allow for some companies to benefit. Innovation will continue and generate economic benefit in certain sectors.


This past week, while Nasdaq was dropping 4.0%, there were 65 stocks hitting new 52-week highs in share price on that exchange. Many of these companies are innovators or able to take advantage of changes in the economy. One change we continue to see is the onshoring of manufacturing. This past week Apple announced that it will be using US made chips for the first time in nearly a decade. We spoke with iFabric this past week, and they told us they are actively looking for a new clothing manufacturer, away from China, including Mexico. What companies are able to take advantage of this new shift?  


We’ve been talking about how cheap so many nanocaps are and how it’s likely to stimulate takeovers and go private transactions. Well, this week we saw another company, ICPEI Holdings Inc. (ICPH.V) announce that key members of management of the company and certain other employees and shareholders of the company, will be purchasing all the outstanding shares and effectively taking the company private. The transaction is being done at a 90.5% premium to the previous day’s closing price.

ICPEI just so happened to be one of the companies that screened very highly on our new cheap stock list and like a number of other nanocaps was ripe for this type of action.

We also saw a sweetened takeover bid for Evergreen Gaming Corp. (TNA.V). It looks like the company will be taken over for US$0.65 or about C$0.89.

Titan Medical Inc. (TMD.T) a pre-commercial medical device company recently announced that they were implementing a strategic review process looking to sell themselves. The struggling stock immediately exploded to the upside with investors believing that the company is worth more in someone else’s hands.

Whether it’s a management takeover, outside takeover or a “strategic review process to unlock value, one thing I’m sure of…. we will see more of these deals.


Trevor and I spoke with the CEO of iFabric (IFA.V) this past week. One of the common things we’ve seen amongst CEO’s lately is the frustration with their company’s share price. iFabric was no different. Considering that this CEO owns roughly 60% of the company and that it has not only dropped 89% from its high of $5.80 reached almost 2 years ago but it now trades at $0.65, well below the stated book value of about $0.76 per share. What hurts even more is the company owns the building it operates in which is being valued on the balance sheet at roughly $2 million but has a current value closer to $12 million. This would put book value at closer to $1.09 per share. No wonder he’s frustrated.

The more we dig, the more we find mispriced situations like this.


And we got some very exciting news from Alchemy Nanotech this week. Alchemy, you’ll recall is the private company that makes and sells specialty nanotechnologies including a windshield protection film to help prevent auto windshield damage. The company has been testing a new infra-red cloaking technology with applications for uniforms to prevent detection from infra-red cameras and night vision goggles. The Canadian military has been testing the product in California and apparently it passed in field testing. We expect further updates early in the new year.


December seems to bring out interesting opportunities, it’s one of our favorite months of the year as we tend to find more mispriced stocks at this time than any other through out the year. It’s likely a combination of tax loss selling, holiday selling and just the quieter trading volumes that allow for wild swings in price. We are busy wrapping up our new lists of stocks that look interesting to us and hope to have them out to you soon.


Canslim Contender

Perion Network Ltd. – (PERI-Nasdaq)

December 9, Closing Price: $25.87

Perion is a global advertising technology company whose synergistic solutions are delivered across the three primary channels of digital advertising - ad search, social media and display / video / CTV advertising. These channels are brought together by Perion's intelligent Hub, which integrates the company's business assets from both sides of the open Web, providing significant benefit to its brands and publisher customers.

Company Website: https://www.perion.com/

Sector: Technology – Software 

Last quarter revenue growth: 31%

TTM revenue growth: 34.1%

Last quarter EPS growth: $0.53 vs $0.28

Ownership: 8.6% (per Yahoo Finance)

Institutional Ownership: 44.8% (per Yahoo Finance)


To your wealth,

Paul and Trevor

Buys and Sells This Week

Bought Inventronics Inc. (IVX.V) @ $2.83 (conviction level 5)*

 

*Conviction buy level: 1 = low, 5= very high

Smallcap Discoveries


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Smallcap Discoveries


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Bri-Chem (TSX.V: BRY) Price - $0.67 Market Cap - $18M


Fab-Form (TSX.V: FBF) Price - $1.56 Market Cap - $14M


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Mimi's Rock (TSX.V: MIMI) Price - $0.16 Market Cap - $8.5M


NexLiving Communities (TSX.V: NXLV) Price - $0.15 Market Cap - $44M


MediaValet (TSX: MVP) Price - $1.30 Market Cap - $53M

Company Interviews & Updates

Upcoming

Topic: Intouch Insight (TSX.V:) Update from CEO Cameron Watt

Time: Dec 12, 2022 01:15 PM Vancouver


Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81460730096?pwd=dTdNZ3h3Si9JaDJMbHdIYldWdE5xQT09


Meeting ID: 814 6073 0096

Passcode: 759850


Topic: Thermal Energy International (TSX.V: TMG) Update with CEO Bill Crossland

Time: Dec 13, 2022 01:15 PM Vancouver


Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84630145482?pwd=VmNmRXhhbG1aWTJWQmF3RkkwWk5hUT09


Meeting ID: 846 3014 5482

Passcode: 846091


Topic: Direct Communication Solutions Online (TSX.V: DCSI) Interview with Chris Bursey

Time: Dec 15, 2022 01:15 PM Vancouver


Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86515268920?pwd=UThTeXJvYzZnclQxdHlFU0NZak9LUT09


Meeting ID: 865 1526 8920

Passcode: 946291

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