Subject: Smallcap Discoveries: A Return to an Old Favorite

A Return to an Old Favorite

Thermal Energy International Inc
TMG-TSX.V / TMGEF: PINK

Company website: Thermal Energy International Inc.
Ticker: TMG-TSX.V – TMGEF-Pinks
Current Price: $0.125
52 Week Hi/Low: $0.08 - $0.145

Average Daily Volume (3month): 40K
Issued and Outstanding: 164,477,606
Options: 21,657,089 (*NIL Warrants)
Fully Diluted: 186,134,695
Current Price: $0.125
Market Capitalization: $20.6 million
Insider Ownership: 8% - 12,884,572
TTM Earnings: (-$400,415)
TTM Revenues: $17,346,155
TTM EBITDA: $761,453
EV/EBITDA: 28.1x
P/E: N/A

P/S: 1.19x
Debt: $3.49M
Cash: $4.26M
Last Financing: 2008 - $15M at $0.22

Highlights
  • Award-winning products offering high return on investment.
  • Customers in diversified industries with large TAM (Total Addressable Market)
  • Strong play on rising energy prices
  • Q3 revenue growth of 60.5%
  • Profitable last quarter
  • Received orders totalling $27.3 million year ending May 31 - 133% year-over-year.
  • Recent $4 million order
  • $4.3 million in cash, hasn’t diluted since 2008.
  • Undiscovered

What is Thermal Energy International?

Thermal Energy is an innovative Canadian cleantech company. The Company is an established global supplier of proprietary, proven energy efficiency and emissions reduction solutions to the industrial and institutional sectors.

Thermal Energy saves customers money and improves their bottom line by reducing the amount of fuel they use and cutting their carbon emissions.

The Company is a fully accredited professional engineering firm. By providing a unique mix of proprietary products together with process, energy, and environmental engineering expertise, Thermal Energy can deliver unique turnkey projects with significant financial and environmental benefits for its customers.

By specializing in the engineering and supply of pollution control, heat recovery systems and condensate return solutions the Company has developed and acquired proprietary products that capture up to 80% of wasted energy from boiler plant and steam operations and recycle the saved energy.

Their customers include many Fortune 500 and other leading multinational companies across a wide range of industry sectors, including companies such as PepsiCo, Goodyear, Kellogg’s, Cargill, Resolute Forest Products, Johnson Controls and American Electric Power.

Thermal Energy has a global presence comprising of offices in Canada, the U.K., the United States, Italy and China.

The Company is also a proud member of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX).



What do they do and how does it work?

Thermal Energy has developed and/or acquired several proprietary products which include:

GEM™  Steam Traps and condensate return systems
  • More efficient than traditional mechanical traps
  • No moving parts reduces maintenance and eliminates the need to replace
  • Typical payback period 1 – 2 years
  • 100s to 1,000s of traps per location
  • Typical order $5K - $500K
FLU-ACE®  Direct contact condensing heat recovery
  • Waste heat is recovered from exhausts
  • Returned as hot water for use in process or heating
  • Typical annual fuel saving of between 5% and 25%
  • Reduces CO2, NOx and SO2 emissions as well as particulate matter (PM)
  • Typical payback period 2 – 5 years
  • Typical order $100K to millions
HEATSPONGE  Indirect contact condensing heat recovery systems:
  • Mass customization via modulated design
  • Sale via manufacturing reps and OEM
  • All sizes of industrial, commercial and institutional sites
  • Order value $5K to $150K
DRY-REX™  Low temperature biomass drying systems. 

These award-winning products are applicable across a wide variety of industries and have an excellent track record of longevity, proven reliability and performance which provides significant energy savings, reduced GHG emissions, improved water efficiency, lower maintenance costs, improved product quality and increased production efficiency.

The key point is that these products offer a 10-30% reduction in energy costs, high ROI with short, compelling paybacks of 1-5 years for customers.

These products are being used by a broad range of clients in industries including pulp and paper, laundry, healthcare, food & beverage, building materials, chemical, petrochemical, brewing, mining, rubber, pharmaceutical, and agribusiness.

This is a massive market for Thermal Energy to penetrate. They are already embedded with some of the world’s largest companies and we believe it’s a function of time before there’s more pressure on these organizations to improve their ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) initiatives. Thermal Energy has a long-standing track record for delivering quality to its clients, and the industrial recovery industry is an estimated $450B market opportunity.

To get a better understanding of GEM™ technology, click here for a video


What’s changed? Why now?

The business history of Thermal Energy is quite eventful and dates back to 1997 when it first became a publicly traded company.

Back then, it was a founder-led business with zero sales, just beginning to commercialize its offerings in partnership with Honeywell. As the business started to expand, it eventually resulted in the founder's departure from the company, leading to a subsequent lawsuit against Thermal Energy.

Following these events, a new CEO took the helm, but shortly thereafter, there were several board resignations, and another minor legal incident resulted in a settlement, costing Thermal Energy due to the wrongful dismissal of its CFO. Thermal Energy faced challenges in maintaining proper governance measures and, at one point in its history, was even temporarily halted. It was required to undergo a comprehensive company audit to address related party issues and questionable transactions.

Fast-forward to today, Bill Crossland is the current CEO, having been appointed to the role after serving as a Director of the Company in 2009.

Since assuming his role, Mr. Crossland has successfully restructured the operations and significantly improved the overall health of the company. After Mr. Crossland inherited the unprofitable operation he swiftly led the business to it's first full-year of cashflow profitability, and positive net income.

After years of consistent EBITDA profitability, and new record annual revenues, Thermal's income statement peaked in 2020 with roughly $21 million in annual sales. Thereafter, Covid hit and disrupted the business.

Thermal Energy employs a team of skilled project and technical engineers and serves international clients. However, due to Covid, everything came to a standstill—no travel, no engineers, no profits.

Due to longer lead times and a lengthier sales cycle typical of Thermal Energy's industry, revenue recognition naturally takes more time as projects are developed and backlog is addressed. Now that disruptions have subsided, Thermal Energy boasts a record backlog of $31 million.

These positive trends are becoming evident as the backlog begins to translate into the income statement. We've witnessed modest growth over the past twelve months, with a remarkable 60% surge in the last quarter—a trend we expect to persist, albeit with some variability.

When comparing this new trend to the performance of the past couple of years, it's easy to see why Thermal Energy may have been overlooked, especially in these current microcap markets where unprofitable businesses are viewed as junk.

In summary, while Thermal Energy may not be currently profitable, its strong track record suggests that profitability is not only possible but likely in the near future. With a solid capital position relative to its size and minimal capital requirements for continued growth, Thermal Energy is poised to transition from a company in need of capital to one that doesn't.

Valuation
Thermal Energy is currently trading with a market capitalization of $21 million and an enterprise value of roughly $19.7 million.

The Company had demonstrated consistent revenue growth up until Covid and now has resumed its impressive growth. Annualizing the latest Q3 revenues will result in record revenues of approximately $22.4 million and record earnings of $2.1 million resulting in a price to earnings ratio of 10. Based on the record backlog and the expectation that it will be recognized over the next 12 months we feel annualizing Q3 results, which will vary quarter to quarter, should still serve as a decent proxy for annual revenues.

While some of the traditional valuation metrics don’t suggest Thermal Energy is cheap on a trailing 12 month basis, where the Company trades at a negative price-to-earnings ratio and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 26x, we feel the impact of Covid has masked the real revenue and earnings power of the company.

We recognize that the Company’s business is contract driven which creates lumpiness to their quarterly reporting and growth in backlog. We are monitoring the growth by tracking the Company’s backlog which currently sits at approximately $31 million or over 140% higher than the same period last year. Furthermore, given the lumpy nature of the Company it must be reviewed on yearly metrics to get a better handle of operations and financial health.

With $4.3 million in cash and a reasonable level of debt totalling $3.5 million, the Company has strong working capital and sufficient liquidity that it will likely not require any financing to continue on its growth trajectory. It is also interesting to note that a portion of the debt has a floating interest rate that is tied to EBITDA levels which were negative in the past 2 years which according to management will be reset lower now that the company is generating positive EBITDA again.

Investors have lost interest in the ESG sector in general mostly due to the fact that so many companies were early stage or over hyped and did not live up to their promises. Companies like Thermal Energy, however, who were growing rapidly and are now again profitable may be being lumped into the same category and are being ignored.

Given the rising cost of fossil fuels and energy in general along with the growing concern for climate change we wouldn’t be surprised to see renewed interest in companies like Thermal Energy who are providing clients real energy savings and demonstrably positive climate change initiatives. Thermal Energy’s products make sense in a lot of ways. 

What to look out for?

The most obvious issue with the stock is the total issued and outstanding shares. There’s 161M shares outstanding and with a relatively low insider ownership at 8%, it leaves a lot of stock in the public market. We think the Company would be more attractive to investors if the Company had less shares outstanding and it would improve the trading. However, we don’t believe the board and management will approve of a rollback anytime soon.

As earlier noted, this is a growth Company that needs to be evaluated on a year-to-year basis and will have lumpiness in its long-term growth trajectory. We note that investors will cause extra turbulence around good and bad quarters creating additional volatility in the shares.

Lastly, and most importantly, we think this Company is early in its discovery process. Meaning, it potentially could take several quarters and years, before the Company begins to attract larger pools of capital. This can impact the liquidity for early investors.

Final Thoughts

We were investors in Thermal Energy originally at $0.10 in February 2020 and exited the position at $0.27 in March 2021 just as the pandemic hit. We were able to generate a return of 170% in a short period of time and were lucky enough to miss the Covid induced down draft in the business and the stock. We feel we are getting another chance to invest in a great company, at a great price, with solid long term potential.

Globally, governments and industries are taking unprecedented action on climate change. Oil prices are back on the rise and the European natural gas shortages of last year are becoming critical concerns again. Energy efficiency remains the low-hanging fruit for industrial, institutional and commercial operations looking to reduce their energy spending and greenhouse gas emissions.

As Thermal Energy is becoming a one-stop-shop for all their customers’ sustainability needs, the Company’s proven and proprietary solutions with their high return on investment and short, compelling payback sets the Company in a leading position to take advantage of this growing trend.

Their strategy is working, and recent growth is attributed to management’s long-term investments in the business and strong product market fit. Under strong leadership the Company has demonstrated it can grow profitably, keep operating costs low and allocate capital effectively.

A return to rapid revenue growth, profitability and a rapidly growing backlog of business positions the company very well for the coming years and we believe it’s one the best investment opportunities we have seen in months.
 
We view this as a very solid, well-managed business that will in time generate value for long-term shareholders. Given that the Company is profitable, growing rapidly again and has sufficient capital, we think the time is right to enter back into Thermal Energy. The Company meets most of our criteria in a period where investors are ignoring smaller, yet strong businesses, and we also believe that the return to higher energy prices and the refocus on ESG liking brings more investors to look at Thermal Energy.

We own share, are buyers, and believe TMG.V is a strong buy up to $0.18.


To your wealth,
Paul and Trevor
86 East 23rd Ave, v5v 1w9, Vancouver, Canada
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