Subject: Explanation of the AMC Short Squeeze
The post below (which I found on Reddit) will bring some
clarity to the AMC situation. It is a fascinating read.
Copied from FB post by M.R.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AMCSTOCKS/comments/nxcanq/amc_short_squeeze_explanation/
For all of the new baby apes. I know a lot of you have questions, and
I thought it would be helpful to provide you with some overall context
to understand the significance of the movement you just joined.
Here’s the cliff note version. Covid hit last March and a couple of
big hedge funds concocted a plan to drive AMC into bankruptcy by
“shorting” it and make a ton of money in the process.
You “short” a company when you think the value of the stock is going
to go down. When the country locked down and AMC closed their doors
and their revenue literally went to $0 overnight, it was a no brainer
play for the hedge funds. NOTE: The main hedge fund here is
Citadel, whose CEO is Ken Griffin.
So they started borrowing millions and millions of shares from brokers
and sold them “short” at the market price at the time, and they
pocketed the cash from the sale. The idea is that the stock price will
drop, you can buy them back later at a lower price, and then return
the borrowed shares to the broker and keep the difference. If the
company goes bankrupt, the stock goes to $0 and they don’t have to buy
anything back at all and keep everything.
This is what they were banking on. They’ve done this to company after
company over the years, and they saw this as a sure thing as any.
Well a bunch of people on Reddit (affectionately known as “Apes”)
noticed they were trying to drive AMC, GameStop and many other retail
brick and mortar stores into bankruptcy, and banded together to buy up
all the available shares, driving up the share price. This resulted in
the mini squeeze in January. But Apes didnt sell after that. And the
hedge funds didn’t cover their short positions either (I.e. buy back
the millions of shares they had borrowed and sold short).
The Apes kept buying and buying, and holding and holding, and once the
real shares were all bought up, the hedge funds doubled, tripled and
quadrupled down on their short position and started making synthetic
shares (IOUs) and selling those shares into the market trying to drive
the price down. When the price dropped, instead of selling like the
hedge funds wanted them to, Apes said “thank you very much for the
discount” and kept buying more and holding. Nobody has sold for the
past 5 months since the movement really got started in January, and
more and more people are jumping in and adding more everyday.
Now because of all of the synthetic IOU shares the hedge funds have
created to keep shorting AMC, us Apes likely own more way more shares
than are actually supposed to exist (as much as 6x-8x by some
estimates). But real or synthetic, each share the hedge funds sold
short is a liability on their books that must be bought back in order
to close out their position.
They literally have hundreds of millions of shares, possibly billions,
to buy back, and we own them all. They have to buy them back
eventually, and every day that the borrowed short shares are still on
loan, the hedge funds are paying interest to the brokers they borrowed
them from. Meanwhile it costs us nothing to hold.
Things started to come to a head in the first half of May when the
interest rate on the borrowed shares was reported to be as high as
250% (1-2% is normal for your average stock), so the hedge funds were
collectively paying hundreds of millions of dollars every day just to
hold their position, and a couple of the smaller ones were starting to
miss payments. That’s when we went from $9 to $17, as those little
guys decided they couldn’t take the heat anymore.
Now we’re at $56 and in the danger zone for the big boys. Not only so
they have to make their daily interest payments on their borrowed
shares, but their long (owned) and short (borrowed) positions are
marked to market every day (adjusted to reflect current share price),
and if their long positions aren’t enough to cover their short
positions to a certain extent, then the bank who lent them the shares
will get worried and demand that they return them immediately. That’s
called a margin call.
And that’s when the fun starts; when the squeeze starts (note, this
has not happened yet). At this point, the broker forces the hedge
funds to buy back all of the hundreds of millions (or more likely
billions) of shares they have borrowed and sold short, because the
broker doesn’t want the hedge funds’ recklessness to fall onto them.
And remember, the Apes own all the shares and aren’t selling. The
hedge funds can only buy a share for what an Ape is willing to sell it
for, and us Apes really love our shares.
Once the margin calls start, the computers just start buying back all
of the shares at the best available price no matter what that price
may be. They all have to be bought back. Everything must be settled.
And if the cheapest price an ape is willing to sell for is 1,000, or
10,000 or 100,000, well then that’s what the hedge funds will be
forced to buy the borrowed shares back for in order to close out their
position.
Apes are going to hold and hold and hold driving up the price further
and further to make the hedge funds bleed as much as possible until
they are inevitably forced to buy back their millions of shares. They
will need to buy our shares, and we set the price.
And remember, it costs us nothing to hold. This movement has been
building for the past 5 months, but you just heard about it yesterday.
One thing Apes don’t do is set dates for the squeeze. Nobody knows
when it will happen, all we know for sure is that the math says it’s
inevitable as long as we hold.
I only see three possibilities as to how this all plays out:
1-AMC goes bankrupt and the hedgies win (please note this is not going
to happen. AMC has enough liquidity to last them through 2022 and the
most passionate shareholder base in the universe. Not to mention a
pretty badass CEO who has completely embraced the new shareholder
base).
2-Hedge funds are somehow able to meet their daily margin payments to
avoid being margin called, and they strategically close out their
short positions over time, causing a sustained Tesla type squeeze over
a period of a year or more (remember, apes aren’t selling until we’re
at the moon).
3-Hedge funds will be margin called and forced to buy everything all at
once and we’ll have the most violent squeeze in the history of short
squeezes. The price is infinite as long as apes hold.
I wouldn’t bet on #1.
#2 will require patience.
#3 will be absolute insanity (and in my personal non-financial advisor
opinion is the most likely outcome). Either way, we’re winning the battle.
This beautiful movement is growing by the day, and we can hold longer
than they can.
Never before has anything like this happened where millions of regular
people have been able to band together to take on the billionaires who
have been screwing them over time and time again, and be able to
actually hit them where it really hurts. It is the big hedge fund
himself on the other side (you know the one) who has his hands in all
the retail brokerage apps to make sure our orders get routed to him to
fill. And then they fill them with synthetic shares that they don’t
even have and dig themselves even deeper. They created and marketed
easy access to the stock market to the retail investor because they
only saw the retail investor as prey. Just another way to bleed us
dry. They never saw this coming.
Like I said, everything will eventually have to be settled. Margin
calls are coming. And the SEC has already enacted several rules to
prepare as much as possible for the catastrophic fallout from this
event, and to make sure that something like this can never happen
again. The millions of little guys with an app in their hand are a
threat now, and I’m sure they’ll adapt to it. So this could very well
be a once in a lifetime opportunity here. Although I’m not a financial
advisor….
NOTE: Below is one of the responses to this post on Reddit:
You forgot to mention that the SEC will vote on June 21st on whether
or not to trigger an automatic margin call for over leveraged hedgies.
If they do that then it's over for them.
Margin calls have to be answered within 24 hours so we could see the
end of this by the end of the month.
If they don't vote Yes then the only way this can go is if banks stop
covering hedgies asses as their interest debt will increase and be
more than their collateral.
They still have some fight in them though. They have been pumping and
dumping stock like CLOV and that other one (can't remember the name)
just yesterday to raise money to put bank at ease and pay their
interest. They are very close to being screwed though.
==============================================
NEW POST:
AMC May Go up to $1533 per Share (So Hold and be Patient)
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If AMC goes up to $1533 per share,
it will mean that if you have...
10 shares = your portfolio will be worth $15,330
20 shares = your portfolio will be worth $30,660
50 shares = your portfolio will be worth $76,650
100 shares = your portfolio will be worth $153,300
200 shares = your portfolio will be worth $306,600
I am following Trey and Matt:
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https://youtu.be/1Rhxl379WXU
Matt Kohrs
https://youtu.be/BeWSnO_spoo
Also....
Market Gains has some good updates:
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=========================================
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=======================================
The Hit Report for May 30 to June 5.
These are the hits from last week:
ARIZONA
926 Hit on Sunday May 30.
ARKANSAS
178 Hit on Tuesday June 1.
782 Hit on Saturday June 5.
CONNECTICUT
845 Hit on Sunday May 30.
859 Hit on Saturday June 5.
FLORIDA
635 Hit on Wednesday June 2.
564 Hit on Friday June 4.
GEORGIA
943 Hit on Friday June 4.
MARYLAND
684 Hit on Sunday May 30.
MICHIGAN
603 Hit on Tuesday June 1.
042 Hit on Friday June 4.
MINNESOTA
574 Hit on Saturday June 5.
MISSOURI
201 Hit on Thursday June 3.
NEBRASKA
051 Hit on Sunday May 30.
NEW JERSEY
751 Hit on Friday June 4.
NORTH CAROLINA
840 Hit on Tuesday June 1.
874 Hit on Friday June 4.
ONTARIO
198 Hit on Sunday May 30.
019 Hit on Saturday June 5.
PENNSYLVANIA
795 Hit on Thursday June 3.
SOUTH CAROLINA
243 Hit on Tuesday June 1.
428 Hit on Saturday June 5.
TEXAS
578 Hit on Wednesday June 2.
WASHINGTON, D.C.
286 Hit on Wednesday June 2.
627 Hit on Wednesday June 2.
=========================================
Pick 3 Numbers for June 6 to June 12.
These numbers are good for this week:
ARIZONA—Keys 02968
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
026 028 029 068 069 089 268 269 289 689
ARKANSAS—12870
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
012 017 018 027 028 078 127 128 178 278
CALIFORNIA—96341
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
134 136 139 146 149 169 346 349 369 469
CONNECTICUT—69458
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
456 458 459 468 469 489 568 569 589 689
FLORIDA—Keys 36145
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
134 135 136 145 146 156 345 346 356 456
GEORGIA—Keys 34917
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
134 137 139 147 149 179 347 349 379 479
ILLINOIS—Keys 47182
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
124 127 128 147 148 178 247 248 278 478
INDIANA—Keys 01258
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
012 015 018 025 028 058 125 128 158 258
KENTUCKY—Keys 56901
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
015 016 019 056 059 069 156 159 169 569
LOUISIANA—19735
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
135 137 139 157 159 179 357 359 379 579
MARYLAND—Keys 86345
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
345 346 348 356 358 368 456 458 468 568
MICHIGAN—Keys 83904
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
034 038 039 048 049 089 348 349 389 489
MINNESOTA—Keys 93567
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
356 357 359 367 369 379 567 569 579 679
MISSOURI—91702
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
012 017 019 027 029 079 127 129 179 279
NEBRASKA—Keys 37105
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
013 015 017 035 037 057 135 137 157 357
NEW JERSEY—Keys 25370
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
023 025 027 035 037 057 235 237 257 357
NEW YORK—Keys 65723
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
235 236 237 256 257 267 356 357 367 567
NORTH CAROLINA—Keys 07948
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
047 048 049 078 079 089 478 479 489 789
OHIO—Keys 29748
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
247 248 249 278 279 289 478 479 489 789
ONTARIO—Keys 93780
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
037 038 039 078 079 089 378 379 389 789
PENNSYLVANIA—Keys 59714
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
145 147 149 157 159 179 457 459 479 579
SOUTH CAROLINA—Keys 48136
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
134 136 138 146 148 168 346 348 368 468
TEXAS—Keys 73581
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
135 137 138 157 158 178 357 358 378 578
VIRGINIA—62054
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
024 025 026 045 046 056 245 246 256 456
WASHINGTON, D.C.—Keys 92674
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
246 247 249 267 269 279 467 469 479 679
WISCONSIN—Keys 68574
Good for Sunday to Saturday (June 6-12)
456 457 458 467 468 478 567 568 578 678
=================================
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