Much has been made of the United Auto Workers' (UAW) dwindling membership numbers, and rightfully so. No matter how one paints the picture, a zenith of 1.5 million members compared to the current 380,000 is a substantial and frankly embarrassing fall. That’s especially true when about 25% of the UAW’s current members are higher education workers, and only around 150,000 members hail from the Detroit Big Three automakers.
Union President Shawn Fain will never vocalize that nuance, nor will he stop patting himself on the back over the Big Three contract negotiations of 2023. The union’s results were not fantastic – raises of 25% are indisputably lower than the 46% demand – and our own Phil Wilson recently highlighted a damning chart that dispels the myth about union workers making higher wages.
Indeed, that is a reality that Fain would hate for his prospective recruits to see during his push to organize 13 non-union automakers – including Tesla, Volkswagen, Toyota, Volvo, Hyundai, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Subaru, Nissan, BMW, Mazda, Lucid, and Rivian – in an overall quest to add another 150,000 or so members.
Let’s check in on Fain’s latest promises, which he addressed to Harvard Law School students in a Trade Union chat. Regarding the UAW not winning 46% raises or 32-hour workweek demands, he declared, “If you get everything you ask for in a negotiation, you didn’t ask for enough.” Of a shorter work week, he added, “We’re not going to let that go.”
What is his longer game? Fain is dangling the 32-hour workweek promise for 2028 automakers negotiations. He also took credit for any non-union raises from automakers with a “You Are Welcome” – to rally support for his membership drive. Fain intends to call an auto worker mass strike on May 1, 2028 (i.e., May Day or International Labor Day), the day after the current Big Three contracts expire.
Any more boasts from the guy with an “Eat the Rich” shirt? Quite a few, as it turns out:
Over 50% of workers at Volkswagen’s Chattanooga, Tennessee plant have signed union cards.
Around 30% of workers at Hyundai’s Vance, Alabama plant have signed union cards.
10,000+ workers from non-union auto plants have signed cards, with the majority sourcing from the two mentioned above.
The more convincing, reality-based number: Of the targeted workers at non-union auto plants, 93% have not signed union cards yet.
The National Right To Work Foundation also warns that the UAW likely plans to claim victory without a union vote and by card-check process only. If true, they will do so via the NLRB’s new Cemex framework “despite workers voting down the union in both 2014 and 2019.”
The main takeaway: This union’s fight is not really for workers. The true goal is survival for the UAW in a time of historically low union density in the U.S. When you frame it that way, Fain’s constant boasting may sound silly, but employees can be lured by a union’s false promises. Employers that foster exceptional workplaces stand the best chance of never dealing with a campaign.
