Subject: US Presidential Election Tuesday 5th November

US Presidential Election

5th November




Hi All,

Last Sunday, I watched the Trump rally from Madison Square Gardens. Such was the enthusiasm, it seemed like this was the start of the American Revolution part 2, forget 1799 it's happening now in 2024! Whether you like Trump or not, the atmosphere was electric.


On the venue itself, which is one of the most well known and famous arena's in the entire world. I am old enough to remember what was billed as 'The Fight Of The Century' in 1971, which also took place at Maddison Square Gardens, when Mohammed Ali took on Joe Frazier, for the Heavy Weight Title of the World, with ring side tickets priced at USD 150, so this is definitely an arena where history can be made.


And it looks like that if Trump does win, then last Sunday will be billed as the fight of the 21st century. There is no doubt trump has been 'on the ropes' to use boxing terminology wounded and tired approval rating of 34% at one point - but what they put on last week was something else.


Was that evening enough for Trump to get past the winning post? Possibly yes. What ever you think about him, as a journalist in the London Times said today 'Trump speaks a language everyone can understand, this is not the case with Harris'. And this is a good point.


If Trump wins the race for the White House, this will be seen as one of the biggest 'Come Back' stories, ever. Never seen in sport, politics or any other sector.


 To turn to trading , next week is possibly going to be very volatile on the markets, my best advice is to stay out of the market probably all week.


On the day of the vote, there will be wild rumours from both camps, and once the votes are being counted it will get worse. How long it will take to get a winner is also anybody's guess, some states are already suggesting there will be delays in counting.


Once the result is known, there will be claims and counter claims and possibly re-counts. All of the above will make the markets very very unstable with FX and the likes of the DJIA shooting hundreds of points one way then the other. This is not conducive to easy trading.


The stock market has been very strong going into the election, just selling off a little last week, all of this was in anticipation of a Trump victory. If he does win, it will be slash taxes, cut red tape time ,all assets, stocks, real estate and inflation will rise.


In addition to all of the above , as if that were not enough, there are no less that three central bank rate decisions, during the same election week, including the Bank of England on Thursday. This will pour petrol on the fire so please be very careful.




Best regards,


Paul Langham



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