I recently read an interesting piece authored by Russel Clarke, a betting statistician who is currently writing a series of articles for Geegeez...
The piece in question expands on the wisdom of crowds theory, which you may already be familiar with, so we'll skim over the details and define it in a single sentence here as...
The many are smarter than the few.
What interested me about this piece in particular, is the theory's relation to horse racing markets on Betfair, and the potential implications for punters who prefer to bet at BSP.
As quoted from the article...
"If we accept the aforementioned theories at face value, the best approximation of the chance of an outcome would, in horse racing, be the Betfair Starting Price (BSP)...
...there is virtually no margin to account for and so the final prices (once every participant has eventually 'voted') can be readily converted into a percentage chance of that outcome actually happening. A BSP of 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 represents a 33% chance, 5.0 represents a 20% chance etc...
...It demonstrates the futility of trying to beat the market when it is at its most accurate. In plain English, it is arrogant in the extreme to believe you know more than the market at the closing and you will eventually find out that it pays to be humble...
...If you bet at BSP (Betfair Starting Price), the commission is likely to ensure you are a long-term loser. If you accept that logic, then it is clear that you should be betting early, when the market has less participants and is therefore less accurate."
If you happen to be a BSP punter, and especially if you're a profitable one, you probably won't agree with the above statement one iota...
And for me personally, after managing to turn a fair profit to BSP with several different strategies over the years, I'm not so agreeable myself...
Most likely, a much greater sample size (i.e. tens of thousands of bets) would be required to know for sure. But this would take years, and we want sure-fire routes to profit right now.
To that end, there is one thing in the article I definitely do agree with...
It's MUCH, MUCH easier to turn a profit betting early, than to turn a profit at BSP.
You can take an early exchange price if the liquidity is there, or an early bookmaker price, or even a "best odds guaranteed" price if you've managed to keep your bookmaker accounts unrestricted thus far...
Whatever the case, betting early is almost guaranteed to stand you in better stead in the long run, than betting to BSP.
This is exactly how our BackLucrative service works. This service does not claim to beat BSP, nor does it need to.
Simply receive the days selections, check the price available is within the range we provide, and place your bets.
It's a fool-proof, value-based strategy, and the empirical evidence that it works is overwhelming...that's why we've been profitable 7 years in a row!
If you'd like to see what all the fuss is about...
About half of the free trials have been snatched up in the last 24 hours...sign up sharp to avoid missing out!
All the best, Michael & the Lucrative Racing Team |
