I actually tried to completely switch off during my family holiday to Florida. I say that with my tongue firmly in cheek because it wasn't exactly a restful trip in the end and I have come back feeling more tired than I was when I departed for the trip.
That, I guess, is only to be expected when you travel to a place that is 100% designed to literally move you into another world whilst relentlessly attacking your wallet. Still, the objective was to give my daughter a treat after her end of school GCSE exams and that objective, at least, was fully achieved.
I have returned with the normal jet lag and dodgy stomach that I tend to get after long haul flights and I have, it seems, returned to some choppy waters where Karatbars is concerned. I have seen two pretty comprehensive updates from Brian McGinty that should answer most questions you have better than I could. I have added links to both updates below (latest first).
I can't add much at all to the overall picture of what Brian has covered as I deliberately kept myself out of the loop while away but I will make a few observations based on my own past experience.
The first is that, personally, my focus has never been on what might happen when we reached the 4th July gold independence day and that hasn't changed. My view on the Karatbars project has always been that the real opportunity would be the post Mainnet or Karatbars Blockchain opportunity that, I am convinced, is still on target for October this year and beyond.
I've been consistent in my view that I joined Karatbars for the gold and the real value of the Crypto Project that emerged (the KBC plan) was always in its long term potential for wealth creation through gold.
From what I can see that hasn't changed and they are still very much focused on getting everything up and running on that blockchain and getting the KBC coin working as it should as a 100% utility coin that will drive everything moving forward.
Be clear, if they had simply announced on the 4th July that everyone, anywhere could simply click a button on Karatbit and magically converted KBC to pounds, euros or dollars, we'd all be looking at an absolutely failed project by now.
They are doing what they need to do (it seems to me) to manage their way to the successful project they've been building over the last few years and I am sure that as we move forward, a number of ways to realise your holdings in gold will appear.
What has changed or, rather, what has reared its ugly head since 4th July is something I have seen before on more than a few occasions. It is best described as a solid wall of whispers that manifests itself as too much noise so that you can only hear bits and pieces of fact that leave you with (at best) nothing of any worth or (at worst) the wrong conclusion.
It is often said, and it is so true, that if an information void appears then that void will soon be filled by speculation and I think we are getting a whole lot of that speculation swirling around at the moment and it is confusing the issue greatly. Equally, I need to say that the information has always been there really if you cared to look but it is just that, if we allow them to, our emotions will often cloud our vision.
Some basic facts though may be required here and it is my hope that I can add some calming influence based on my understanding of how the cryptocurrency market place really works and what drives price and value.
What moves a crypto market isn't always logical. After all, if it were, we would never have seen Bitcoin hitting $20,000 in value back in December 2017 and then gradually falling away to a low point of just over $3,000 in December 2018. That was a staggering 85% loss in value but, of course, only if you:
a) bought Bitcoin at $20,000 and
b) sold it at $3,000.
Bitcoin right now stands at around $10,800 - not the $20,000 it achieved in 2017 but a respectable level nevertheless and many believe (and I count myself as one of them) that it will eventually exceed that previous high of $20,000. Guess what I didn't do after the price of Bitcoin fell by 85% in 2018? Yep, you guessed it, I didn't sell my Bitcoin.
Let's try to apply the same test to KBC (although it isn't really possible as KBC has existed for less than 2 years and Bitcoin has now been knocking around for 10 years plus). Also, I doubt anyone went out and bought KBC on the day it achieved its highest market value to date.
No-one within Karatbars has ever paid more than $0.01 for KBC Unless they bought some extra KBC in the live market). I think it is likely that no-one has paid more than around $0.008 in reality but I thought I would be conservative in my estimates. And right now it is sitting at around $0.04. That is down from a peak of roughly $0.12 on 3rd July 2019. It's market low to date is $0.0047 in August 2018.
In the unlikely event that someone did purchase some in the market on the 3rd July, well, even then we could not easily use the Bitcoin comparison because the market low (value) was seen a year ago so we would need to base our test on the current value against the all time peak. Given that we are looking at $0.12 down to $0.04 that would represent a drop in value of around 67% high to low.
For most of us however, we are still looking at gains of between 8X and 10X in reality were we to sell right now.
What causes a major shift in price with a cryptocurrency?
Well, there's a bunch of things and let us start with Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is to altcoins (other cryptos) as the moon is to the earth. Bitcoin will literally create a tide of movement in crypto prices. When the market wants to get into Bitcoin it will get out of altcoins in a big way and it matters not for market followers and makers, what the altcoin is.
Strangely, it does not work the same in reverse. The market does not always jump into altcoins when it wants out of Bitcoin. For an altcoin to move up in value it requires an individual demand for that coin. Demand comes from confidence and understanding and is often driven by news. Both of those first two factors seem strangely absent (it seems to me) with KBC right now and the third one is either being lost in the noise or ignored.
Another huge factor with all crypto is market sentiment and this can be massive where FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and FOMO (fear of missing out) are concerned. KBC is most definitely going through a cycle of huge FUD right now. If FUD can impact upon Bitcoin (66.5% of the entire crypto market) you bet your boots it can impact upon little old KBC.
There are some silly people out there who simply do not get that each time they pass on their (often totally inaccurate) negative view about what is happening to a crypto coin or crypto project, they are adding to the FUD and helping to bring the thing they fear (the curse of the drop to zero) closer to reality. That is especially true of people with great influence.
It would take just one or two people with a large circle of influence in the Karatbars sphere spreading negativity over the project to cause significant movement in market sentiment. If that is then picked up and passed forward by many others then guess what happens? The price falls and keeps on falling.
Ultimately though, if more people are buying than selling, the price will gradually increase whatever else happens around it but if people keep selling, the price will fall. Add that to the tidal effect of Bitcoin and you can see how easily the value of a small cryptocurrency can be moved in the wrong direction.
In addition, it must always be noted that any significant sale of holdings can temporarily move a market drastically. We saw this around a month ago when 25,000 Bitcoin were sold in one go (plunging the price lower by over 10%). That was caused by what we call a whale and the whale, after seeing the 10% drop bought the whole 25,000 Bitcoin back again (and some) and saw a very nice increase in holdings.
Some good news is that, regardless of all of the above, a great project will stand the test of time and succeed. There are many examples of this and I could, literally, quote at least a dozen that I have personally followed in detail and sometimes supported financially. I will not quote a dozen though, that would take too long.
Ethereum.
Always a great project but it took almost two years in the live market for the market to "get it". Even then it experienced the roller coaster ride that Bitcoin did with highs of $1,300 and lows of $80 after proving its worth as a tried and tested project. Please note, that, like Bitcoin and all other Cryptos, and like KBC it started out with no value at all. It is worth noting that it was the drop in Bitcoin value post December 2017 that tore down the price of Ethereum (tidal effect).
Ripple.
Gets my vote as the most frustrating crypto of all time (so far). Ripple was always a great project with massive potential and yet it took over 3 years in the market to even attain a €0.01 value. It has experienced market highs of over $3.30 and lows of $0.27 since. It is still a great project nevertheless.
I could go on quoting example after example but here's the real point:
KBC is unique. It is designed for a purpose. It will be the fuel that drives the Karatbars/Karatgold economy. Everything that happens post Mainnet launch will create income through KBC and having a baseline value supported by gold gives it a strength that will help it to grow durability over time.
I absolutely believe that whilst there are always going to be inevitable setbacks along the way, KBC will grow in time to meet everybody's expectations.
As to questions about KCB, well, the time for KCB is coming when the ICO is finished, the coin merges with KBC and it moves forward as part of the bigger project.
Apple went public in 1980. Around 24 years later an Apple share was worth around $2. Now they are worth over $200. It is often quoted as one the best investments you could ever have made but it took almost 40 years to get there. Things get faster over time so I doubt it will take KBC 40 years to obtain worthwhile value but the lesson is in holding and having faith in the project.
I'm not suggesting that Karatbars is another Apple but I would be more than happy to see their KBC coin reach $1 in value. I am absolutely sure that it will and I am more than happy to hold on until it does. But if I wasn't I could walk away from it right now, go to the market, add to the FUD and sell for a huge profit over what I bought at.
If you had bought Apple 10 years ago you;d have seen a 7X increase in value on your holdings today. People call that a massive success in terms of equity holdings and some are panicking because our KBC holdings are currently only showing an 8X to 10X gain over 18 months. Does that make sense?
Seems to me that all is, mostly, well but I am prepared and so should you be for more of that FUD and noise along the road to getting there.
I know that some of you will have burning questions that relate more to matters of personal concern. Where are my coins? And so on. Brian has covered all of this in one or both of the updates I've linked to below.
It is important to remember that, like you, I am also a passenger on this ride. I get all of my information from the news feeds I read in my back office, Brian's updates and what I have seen and heard at events. Obviously, as you know, I wasn't at the Vegas event on 4th July so I am as clued up as you are about that one.
Take the time to look at Brian's recent updates (below) and please do your best to ignore the FUD. I know that can be hard but it isn't impossible.
I always try to help where I can but please, please, bear in mind that I do not have a hotline to the company, I have access to the same support facility that you do and YES it is stretched and as frustrating as hell right now. But that will change, I am sure, when they have finally got to the point where they are not constantly fighting the FUD!
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