Hello Friend
Ah the curse of the email returned yesterday. Albeit a couple are worth keeping an eye on I think. And the AOB notes found a winner and a couple of placed horses. (today's 'quals' below)
Moving onto today... where I have repeated a chunk of today's members' post, + another horse of interest.
I have repeated it all below but you can also read it all HERE>>>
(some decent/useful reader comments also, as always)
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers
3.15 Newm- Richard Pankhurst (any odds)
3.40 Curr - Tony The Gent (any odds)
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Horse Of Interest...
For now there is just one below which has caught my eye for a few reasons. There may be more to come, or I may put up some qualifiers from the Members' post for the Curragh and Mark Johnston- who if he repeats the stats for the last 3 years in July will make me very happy indeed!
6.40 Lingfield- Astute Boy - 14/1 (general)
Mr Vaughan is 3/13,5 places with handicap debutants in the last two years, +17. 3/6 in the last year alone. A change in approach maybe. Now, they are 0/8,2 places at this track, which is maybe a negative but at least two have placed. The horse steps up in trip by 5 furlongs or so which also caught the eye. Trainer is 1/5,4 places when moving horses in trip significantly (20%+ from last run) He is also 4/13,7 places with horses returning after 60+ days at Lingfield on both the AW and Turf tracks - 2/6,3p on the latter. Finally, his horses are going well enough - 3/9,4 places in the last 30 days. So, there is plenty there I think at a double figure price. To use two well worn phrases of mine, he is 'doing something different' (well a few things) and he 'could be anything'. Oh and the trainer is 5/22,10 places with 3 year olds at the course. Clearly he will now tail in last but my money is down! Hopefully there is money for him.
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Members' Post... below I have repeated a chunk from today's Members' post. As always it's a mix of well researched trainer angles (on paper at least!), my opinion and starting points to help you make your own punting decisions. Long term profit, fun/entertainment and personal development is the aim (we can all be better punters, and it's fun to try and progress together)...
We shall see if there are any winners in this little lot...
From the Members' Post...
2.Any ‘Notes’ ('bet of the day' + any other notes)
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 4/29,15p, +6.6) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 12/84, +31.1) *
*This is where I look through the stats qualifiers against my stats packs in section 1 of the daily posts and pick out what I like best. Very subjective. Often wrong. But the profit level above is ok. Still in 'test' mode and we shall see if a 35% ROI can be maintained...
3.55 Windsor- Desert God - 1 point win 10/1 - (PP/BV/SJ/Betstars)
I don't know what to say about this one other than he 'could be anything' He was a star in India, winning their Derby and numerous other races worth a fair old chunk of cash. I'll be honest - I don't know the Indian racing scene very well. I couldn't tell you if winning the Indian Derby is like winning a C3 at Yarmouth! I have no idea. In that scenario you want a price, and we get that here. He could be rated a few pounds too high, he could actually be very good and hack up. I think you can make excuses for his Dubai runs. The market will no doubt guide. Richard Hughes is in the form of his training career to date- 8/32,15p last 14 days, 14/66,29 last 30. He is 3/28 with flat handicappers returning after 60+ days off but of some interest is 2/4 with those types at Windsor. At 10/1 there is enough juice there to roll the dice, and roll it I shall.
5.00 Windsor- Funky Footsteps - 1 point win - 12/1 (WH/BetF/BV/SJ)
It is hard to resist this one at a double figure price on just the 6th start of her life. Her run the last day was a bit underwhelming but it was her first start of the season and she looked a tad keen through the first part of the race. I also don't know what her best going is - she won her novice on soft and maybe connections thought that's what she wanted. Her next two starts on a decent surface didn't go well but one was a C2 and it could be the trip, on that going, did for her. She looks like she may well stay further than this in time and her breeding would suggest as much. They return to a track where she ran an ok race last season, fading in the last 75 yards over 1/2 furlong further than today. It could be she didn't pick up in the ground also. Anyway, there is a bit to go on. She is unexposed and could/should be fitter than for last time out. She was 16/1 that day and wasn't fancied by all accounts. It is hard to say she can't get involved here. She may prove that she does need a deep surface but at 12s she is worth a dart for me.
Sayem- (stats pick, runs in same race) it would be typical for her to beat me here, and I may have a saver- but on balance I prefer the one above, and at the time of writing was generally around 4 points bigger. I don't think they know what her best trip is. For me at Leicester two starts ago she looked to be out-stayed over 7f, albeit it was a C4. They then dropped her back in trip where she was sent of fav and didn't run well. And now they step up back up another 2f to 8f. Trainer/Jockey are 0/15,7p in handicaps, maybe they are due a winner and there could be some pace for JS to aim at. She is unexposed, so nothing would surprise, and is 'doing something different' in trying this trip for the first time. We shall see if I have 'tipped' the right one. Don't let those thoughts put you off if you like her chance.
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We have a few Curragh darts and the start of the Mark Johnston July experiment to interest us also...
AOB Curragh (NOTES HERE>>>>)
2.00-
Battle of Jericho (micro 2) 9/4
Fleet Review (micro 2) 10/1
US Navy Flag (notes) 8/1
4.10 - Asking (micro 1) 10/1
4.40 - Rostropovich (notes) 14/1
5.20 -
Capri (notes) 10/1
Taj Mahal (micro 1) 40/1
3.Micro System Test Zone
July Trainer (any odds,bigger the better) *
3.05 York - Teofonic - 20/1
3.30 Newc - Jaameh - 11/1
4.00 Chest - Hochfeld - 4/1
*This angle has been 20/85, 38 places, +262 BFSP the last three years. +68 points profit on the BF place market. We shall see how they do over the next 4 weeks.
That's the lot for today. We shall see if there are any decent priced winners amongst them.
good luck with any bets.
All the best,
Josh |
