Good Morning, Friend

A mix of shorties and no hopers in yesterday's 'stats starting points' as it turned out, however there was a 10/1 winner for the Fanshawe/Murphy combo at Yarmouth, which I know a handful of you landed on and were happy to have done so - the CP, up in distance, and first go on soft turf (while getting better with experience), appeared to do the trick, in a 'so-so' race.

Onto today and I've repeated today's post below. A few starting points again, a couple of 'Oct Trainer' Qualifiers, and some notes from myself, to agree or disagree with.

Today’s Stats Starting Points

Remember, this is a ‘stats first’ approach, NO assessment of the horses form/profile has gone into the below, all angles with at least a 30% SR. They’re here to help give you a kick start, save time and add some focus, before further analysis if you so wish. With any luck a fun, engaging and rewarding challenge over time Let’s crack on…

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Kempton-

4.13 – Spirit Lead Me – Hughes/Marsh are 10/26, 14p +9 around here in the last year. This one hasn’t done much as yet, but now makes handicap debut, up 2f in trip, down two classes into an open looking/weak C6 nursery handicap (a few lurkers though). Horse was a 82k breeze-up buy, they’ll be hoping better than 59 in time. Do note… he’s by Calyx, who’s had a decent 2 years with al runners, 17.5%, +93 SP. They appear to do better on the AW, in the last year, all AW runners, 22/95, 40p, +109, that could be worth noting more generally. This lad runs on the AW for the first time, another possible reason for improvement? (he could just be useless of course, or a 3YO in the making) A step forward wouldn’t be a big shock.

5.15 – Eupator – (7.45, Circe), Hannon/Leavy are 3/8,4p +11 in the last 14 days, and Richard will be doing all he can to help win his stable conditional the championship. In the last 14 days, Joe with all rides, 8/31,11p, +20.

7.45 – Queens Guard – Michael Bell/Oisin Murphy, 4/11,5p +17 together in the last year. This one could just be out of sorts, but drops from listed races into a C4 handicap, and returns to the AW which may be preferred.

Nottingham –

3.15 – Romantic Spirit – David Menuisier in decent form, 4/11,6p +8 in last 14 days. That’s all there is to go on with this one really, market may guide, handicap debut having not done much to date, maybe deliberately, or a slow burner. First run on soft ground, could be transformative, could not! Many unknowns.

Worcester –

2.08 – Lermoos Legend (3.38 King Roly, 4.38 Lady Henrietta) Peter & Michael Bowen have had a good 365 days here, 13/29, 20p +44 SP. In handicaps, 8/16,12p +34.

2.08 – Law of Supply – (3.38 Clondaw General, 4.08 The Kemble Brewery, 4.30 Weth Hurlerontheditch) – Kim Bailey has started the season in fine form, 4/10,5p +12 all runners in prev 14 days. Since David Bass left as stable #1 and has gone freelance, Kim is using a few different jockeys, Tom Bellamy now 3/9,3p +6 for him.

2.38 – Ilovethenightlife – (3.08 Mask of Zorro, 4.08 Hartington, 4.38 Ryder’s Rock, 5.10 Sparkling Duke) – Joe Tizzard also appears to have his string in decent form in the early season, 3/10,6p last 30d, 2/6,5p +8 in last 14d. In that time, nephew Freddy Gingell 2/5,4p on the string, stable #1 Brendan Powell gets the leg up today also.

Wetherby –

2pm – A Moments Madness – (3pm, Quantock Hills) trainer/jockey are 2/5,2p in the last 30 days, +7, Warren going along ‘ok’. In the last year, Greatrex/James Bowen, are 21/119, 48p +31 together.

Kempton –

4.45 – We’re Done – trainer/jockey 2/6,3p in last 14d, +32. Marco riding well more generally, 5/22,8p +32 in last 14d. Not much to go on with this one, but making handicap debut, up in trip, bit of a longer break between runs than his last two starts. Market may guide, Stuart does well with handicap debutants generally, 3/15,4p -3 in last year, plenty short. This race full of similar lurkers.

6.15 – Annsar – Jack Jones/Dylan Hogan are ticking along, 3/7,4p +2 in the last 14 days. Jack is 3/29,4p with his 1st time out 2YOs, hard to find but odd one goes in. His five non-handicap winning 2YOs to date have all gone it at 14/1 or shorter SP. This fillies dam won as a 2YO over 7f. Not much else to go on, in a race where a handful have experience but need to step forward.

8.15 – First Company – The Loughnane’s are 2/6,3p together in last 14d, 7/22,9p +64 together at Kempton in the last year. This one is worth tracking whatever he does here, now 2lb below his last winning mark, two wins last Nov-Jan over this Kempton 6f, inc at C5 (C6 today). Raced freely/no cover when last seen, Billy back on. I suspect he’ll pop up at some point around here.

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October Trainer Qualifiers

4.08 Worc – The Kemble Brewery

4.30 Weth – Hurlerontheditch

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Today’s Tips & Notes

Notes – flicking through the above with my own subjective eyes, the four most interesting at the odds could well be Spirit Lead Me 4s (4.13 K), Hurlerontheditch (4.30 Weth), Queens Guard (7.45K) and First Company 11/2 (8.15 K, EW bet to nothing with 4p? poor sod) Do you agree on any of those, or you like a horse I haven't mentioned? (a fair few of those will win over time!)

Spirit looks just about ok at 4s, a few unknowns, but I thought ‘if’ he is to step forward this season as a 2YO, it was now likely on handicap debut, up in trip and given those sire stats, on the AW, his first go on polytrack today. Hughes has handicap debutant winners, they’re going along ok, and it looks a so-so race on paper. They paid a fair whack for him. Maybe he’s just a 3Yo but I big run today wouldn’t be a shock. Boughey has the fav, who has more handicap wins in him, and may win by default if the rest are useless/slow developers, but trainer 2/31 last 14 days, gives me hope, and evidently he’s beatable, for all I suspect more to come from mark. We shall see!

Hurlerontheditch 4s – Kim has booked Hughes here, hopefully a sign of intent but we shall see. I have to think this horse is here to try his best, and we’ll see if good enough. I think fresh and first run after a wind-op (he’s had a few) may be the time to catch him, indeed he was going to hack up on chase debut last season around Warwick, on seasonal return, when coming to grief at the last. He’s run some ok races since, but now could be the time to catch him. The yard in fine form. He is up against a fair few unexposed chasers, many making chase debut. However, it does mean he has experience on his side, they have to prove they can jump under pressure, and that they’re fit. Lacey has the fav, I’m not convinced the yard firing as yet, some running ok, this may tell us more. You’d think he’s thrown in as a chaser, but evidently Kim’s is well handicapped, back on same mark (112, 125 RPR) as when he was going to win by 20l at Warwick. Surely a monster run incoming, just whether ‘sexier’ legs have him, but 4s is fair for me.

Queens Guard 4s- well the hope is that the booking of Oisin, dropping down from listed races into class 4 handicaps, and a return to the AW, sparks a ‘revival’, for all maybe just outclassed in recent efforts. I expect a big run here, the last time she was in C4 handicap company she hacked up off 5lb lower. This could be tactical, which is never ideal for any horse, and maybe she needs cover, I’ll trust in Oisin at 4s, but that could be her undoing, we’ll see. I thought the two above in market had questions to answer also, hard to know if the fav is well in off 80 or not, has hacked up twice in novices, but not sure what she’s been beating. I wasn’t sure the drop back to 6f would suit Hannon’s, but maybe they’ll be aggressive. I don’t think Oisin will be far away here.

First Company 5s – well the other three arguably have ‘more to come’, less so Bailey’s chaser maybe but we haven’t seen the best of him yet over a fence. This lad is one of those low grade AW handicappers where hoping for a return to past form, for all only 6. He enjoys this CD, is well handicapped again, and has only won handicaps for Billy, who’s back on for the first time since his break. He was trapped wide/keen when last seen, Billy is usually aggressive on him, so hopefully has him up there. It could be he won’t strike until Nov-Dec, but it’s a so so race and he really should be thereabouts – he would go very close to winning if bringing his prev winning course efforts to the table, I’m not sure much to fear on paper. The yard in better form than when last seen, here’s hoping.

Do with that lot as you please, have a look yourselves and see if you agree or I'm barking mad!

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Good luck with any bets,

Josh