Good Afternoon, Friend

Below you can find today's blog post, the 'stats pointers' have been up since 9am or so.

Before that, there's one big 'trends' handicap in focus from Ascot tomorrow, the 18 runner Challenge Cup. You can find my trends profile, shortlists and trainer pointers below...

CLICK HERE TO READ >>>

Hopefully they may guide you towards the winner! I'll be having a deeper dive in later this afternoon.

In the meantime, today's blog post, repeated down below, can be found HERE >>>

Today’s Stats Starting Points

Winners yesterday at SP, 13/2, 15/2, 6/5, 4/5, 16/1 (27/1 BFSP), 2nd at 11/2, 7/2, 9/1, 6/1, 9/4 & 3/1. These ‘starting points’ continue to do their job in highlighting winners/consistent runners (much much better than most of my previous daily stats content in seasons gone by!), just a case of trying to land on enough of the right ones in time! Remember, this is a ‘stats first’ approach, NO assessment of the horses form/profile has gone into the below, all angles with at least a 30% SR. They’re here to help give you a kick start, save time and add some focus, before further analysis if you so wish. With any luck a fun, engaging and rewarding challenge over time 🙂 Let’s crack on…

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Newcastle –

Menzies/Kaiya Fraser remain in good form, 5/9,6p last 14, +15 (8pm, Kyber Crystal)

Kaiya has a ride for John Butler also (6pm, Yokohama), trainer/jockey 3/6, 4p +4 in last 30d

Tom Kiely Marshall another claimer in decent form, 5/10,7p +29 last 14 days (7pm Elettaria, 7.30 Coligone Kate, 8.30 Flash The Dash) A couple of those for Julie Camacho, 3/10,4p +2 together last 30 days.

Fontwell –

The in-form James Bowen, 9/17,11p, +36 last 14d, has three rides today (2.35, Dish of The Say, 3.45 Trolley Boy, 5.30 Kelce)

Ben Pauling/Ben Jones may be starting to tick, 2/5,3p +6 in last 30d inc an easy winner yesterday (4.55 Greatness Awaits)

Sean Houlihan does well when teaming up with Jim Boyle here, 4/10,7p +16 last 5 years (5.30, Beat The Heat)

Team Twister have done well here in the last 5 years, 11/36, 19p +8 all Fontwell runners (3.45 Stream of Stars, 4.20 Lord of Cheshire) The team are starting to fire for all odds compilers not taking many chances, 6/17,10p -2SP in last 14 days. All their runners here worth a glance but with chasers in the period, 4/7,4p +7

Hexham –

Jedd O’Keeffe usually a trainer to note at Hexham, 10/22,13p, +12, all runners here in last 5 years (3.30, Ip Up) He’s generally a trainer to keep onside with his handicap chasers, in last 2 years, 11/45, 20p, +9, and off 60+ day breaks, 5/12,8p, +18. Jockey Craig Nichol has ridden this chase course well in last 2 years, 6/21,10p, +12 SP, and on 6 YOs chasers here, 5/9, 7p +18.

Mark Walford/Tom Midgley have done well here, 5/13,8p +3 (5.50, Moonlight Glory)

Nicky Richards/Sean Quinlan have done well here last 5 years, 10/28,14p +10 SP all runners (5.15 Coniston Clouds) Nicky has generally done well with all his Hexham runners last 2 years, 11/37, 16p, +16. The yard generally about chasers down the line, so no surprise that over fences here, 5/9,7p +9 in that time, with x4 different horses.

Dundalk –

Trainer David Marnane & jockey Luke McAteer have been doing ok last 14 days, 2/5,2p, +6 (6.15 Sir Yoshi, 6.45 Boutella) The trainer generally in form, 4/12 +59 in last 30 days.

J Davison/ Ronan Wheelan are worth keeping an eye on here, 8/22,10p +32 together last 5 years (6.15, Lightning Bear), trainer does well with 7< day returners, 6/20, 10p +14 last 2 years. (also 5.45, Betson)

Trainer M O’Callaghan doesn’t usually mess around when booking Colin Keane here, 9/26, 17p, +28 together in last 5 years (7.45, Tiffany Twisted) In non-handicaps here in that time together, 5/16, 10p +21.

Ascot –

Marco Botti / Hollie Doyle have done ok in last 30 days, 2/6, +10 (5.05, Thyer)

Sir Mark Prescott does well with horses after a 60+ day break, in last two years, 23/74, 41p +12 (2.47, True Legend)

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October Trainer Qualifiers

4.40 Hexham – Florida Dreams (12/1< SP)

5.15 Hexham – Coniston Clouds (12/1< SP)

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Today’s Notes

Some musings in relation to some of the starting points above, as always a few shorties there for those of you who do better at the top end of the market than I do!

A couple of interesting chasers at Hexham, for all as I type the market is a bit weak on both Ip Up 7.6 (3.30) and Coniston Cloud 10.5 (5.15), but there may not be much in that. Some strong stats foundations for both, and the former has some prev chase experience in France without winning, and it’s hard to get a grip on her form, a bit ‘so so’ over hurdles in terms of how the races have worked out. However, she’s related to chasers, and some decent ones, and assuming she’s fit (she may not be!) could run a big race here. I suspect Jedd will get a chase win from her at some point this season, maybe here, maybe after a run or two and up against mares, we shall see. Coniston never jumped a twig LTO, PU, but has had a break and his one chase win came when fresh, so every hope he’s been readied for this. He drops in class, his chase win at Catt in a C5, before then running in C4s, and this is a very mediocre race. Maybe he’s also mediocre, but again, some strong stats there, and he’s entitled to mix it at a nice price, also an Oct qualifier. I wouldn’t want him taking a walk in the market nearer the off time though. Danny McMenamin has ridden him in most of his races but is riding Shadows In The Sky, who he’s ridden plenty also. No idea if anything in that, or Nicky just wants to mix it up, he does very well with Sean around here. IF he jumps, I suspect he’ll be thereabouts.

To Ascot, where both those flagged via the stats, have an ‘unknown’ when it comes to the ground, but True Legend 5.5 (2.47) would have to go close IF handling it, that’s the question, and one you’re weighing up against the odds/value etc. The fact he’s been nibbled at, 9/2, would give you more confidence, and he’s got the form/level of performance to mix it here, down in class. He can be a bit keen, and you’d want him to drop his head here, but Sir Mark will have freshened him up after some solid staying efforts, and providing the ground is ok (it may not be, testing ground an unknown, plenty of the sires handle it and the dam had some ok runs on softer) I could see him just keep grinding away up this climb for home. Sir Mark and Luke are 3/12,5p +13 SP when teaming up in handicaps here also in last 5 years, 2/4,3p over this 2m distance. I don’t think he’ll be done for stamina, just the going question, but he’s never tried it. That’s also a question for Thyer 9.8 (5.05) but the straight course is ‘only’ soft (round course heavy, until the straight), the stalls are stand side, and Hollie is drawn right against this rail, for a horse who likes to go forward. Could she make all? Maybe. I suspect she’ll give it a good go, and again IF handling soft, will be therebouts. These Classified Stakes races are always tricky puzzles, but this son of Gleneagles (he wanted a road but plenty of offspring handle soft) is at least unexposed and has more upside potential than many in here, for all maybe it’s a day for the hardier sorts. The horse did well to win LTO under a penalty, from a well fancied Frankel colt, and the Thirsk form before that is ok. Marco is in form and while not prolific at Ascot, he is 1/6,3p over 8f here in the last 2 years. It’s best never to be too harsh with a ‘smaller’ yards Ascot stats, given how competitive it usually is, and of course Royal Ascot can give a false impression. There’s no doubt more to come from this one at some stage.

To Dundalk and the market is suggesting ‘not today’ for Tiffany Twisted 9.8 (7.45) for all maybe that will change nearer the off (still early days and i doubt much liquidity in this race yet across the board). The trainer/jockey stats are strong, and surely he’s booked Colin for good reason, who could have ridden one of his dad’s in this, and no doubt something else. Colin is 2/6,4p +24 on the yards non-handicapping 3YOs here, inc a 25/1 winner, so maybe the market means sod all. There isn’t really much else to go on, the horse a maiden after two starts, but LTO was the first start for a year and she moved well, last off the bridle, and stayed on ok. It was promising to some degree, and she should be fitter here. The AW is an unknown, and of course the aim may be for one final run to get a handicap mark, and Colin is actually on to make sure she accidentally doesn’t get too close! But it is an awful race, nothing with form has done much at all and a few looking exposed, but something has to win it.

Do with those thoughts as you please! Hopefully they may help any deliberations, or maybe they won't! :)

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Thanks for reading, and GL with any bets,

Josh

p.s Sat ITV Trends & Trainers post, READ HERE >>>