Hello Friend
It's been very quiet on the free posts in the last week and I don't like emailing you for the sake of it. I have been busy completing my flat stats research which underpins the daily members' posts as well as attempting to have a few quieter days- and when that is the case it's the free content that tends to take a hit. I have yet to decide what may populate the free content through the summer months. There will be some stats/trends/shortlists for any heritage handicaps, as well as the odd tip over jumps, for 3m+ handicap chases as always.
On Thursday I was at Chelmsford to watch 'my horse' (5%) Blessed To Empress win the 8.20 at a stonking 16/1. The price/winnings was irrelevant, I'm still on cloud 9. I can't explain that feeling of sheer joy. Incredible. There are still 4 shares free, and a couple in Really Super who I also have 5% in, both in training with Amy Murphy who is such fun. (do email me if you're interested and I'll pass you onto the guys who run our superb syndicate)
I had a look at the 3.55 Uttoxeter but couldn't make a decision so left it. There are some notes below. Given it has been quiet I have then repeated my four tips from the Members' post, hopefully I haven't now cursed them.
As always you can read today's musings HERE>>>
repeated below...
(free) TIPS
3.55 Uttoxeter - NONE...
Odd for me not to have a go at a race like this but having looked through I think I'd be betting for the sake of it. This does look a good opportunity for American, but his odds feel about right to me, especially given his inexperienced jockey - although she looks decent and her chase stats are fine, and she's won some 12+ runner chases, so it could be a valuable 7lb- he will also race prominently which helps. At his best he would demolish this bunch I suspect, given he is still unexposed and has a touch more class than these- I'm not sure anything else could finish 2nd in that G2 two starts back. If he is well in himself there is no excuse here, provided he gets assistance from the saddle. The Skelton horse is interesting and unexposed over this trip. If he stays, and does not bounce (second run after returning 400+ days off LTO), he would have a chance, but his price seems short enough- I'd rather be on American at those prices I think but either could go well. Sizing Codelco won for us at Aintree in 2017 at 20/1 so owes me nothing - Robbie power somehow got him around as this one cannot jump. Again at Aye he was slow into numerous fences and is rarely fluent. Maybe Harry C's magic hands will make the difference. He should travel well on the front end and if he jumps will go close. But it's likely something is better handicapped than him in this. The Bowen horse..well he may need the run and as yet hasn't won after a break and does seem to have the odd issue in his head, a bit inconsistent. This trip may not be far enough but clearly on that Sandown win a couple of years back he would go close. Somehow he finds himself rock bottom of the HorseRaceBase total ratings which I never like as they rarely win in C3+ handicap chases, maybe he will overcome that. Templehills may be the most interesting of the bigger priced ones. At least he comes here in form but he has a stamina and class question and he has to prove that he's up to this level.
I think if one of the top two in the market run their race it is theirs to lose, but I can't tempt myself in at 11/2, and I'd probably pick the wrong one!If Sizing C jumps, he could go close. If a biggie wins I'll be annoyed but I couldn't make a case for much else at the prices
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A Bonus...hopefully! Given it has been so quiet on here I have repeated section 2 from today's members post which is where I cast my own subjective eye over my stats qualifiers, before deciding if I wish to 'tip' anything. All the horses below hit my track stats to start with before I make a decision whether I want to tip/back them myself etc. 3 of the 4 also hit a systematic strategy in my members club also.
Anyway, do with them as you please. 2018 hasn't got going on this front just yet, awaiting a spike! Thankfully the members Festival tips have done rather well, so the collective tipping effort (inc +80 odd points on these free posts) has been just fine in 2018 to date.
(the flat stats have started well, firing out plenty of winners, and long may it continue!)
One member kindly emailed in, (and I didn't write this myself, promise)...
Hi josh.
Just wanted to drop you a quick message of thanks for the fantastic service you are running.I think I’m coming close to end of my 7 week trial and will have no hesitation in signing up.Thoroughly enjoy the write ups and can safely say one of the best services I’ve ever been involved with.
Congrats on your horse last night,youd of thought I owned it the amount I was jumping round my living room when it won.
Well pleased for yah.
Again many thanks.
Regards
(I can only assume he hasn't tried too many other services!! :) )
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Section 2 of today's members' post... prices widely available when posted...
Test/trial : 'NOTES' 'aka Tips' (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/83,29p, +7.5) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)
NOTES
2.40 Goodw - Love Dreams - 1 point win - 8/1 (gen)
4.30 Uttox - Black Sam Bella - 1 point win - 9/1 (gen)
1.50 Newm - Oasis Charm - 1 point win - 10/1 (gen)
8.35 Hex - Avondhu Pearl - 1 point win - 18/1 (PP/BV/BetfS) 16/1 (gen)
Love Dreams... the first of two flat horses today I have tipped that arrive fit and in form having won LTO and who look like they should give me a run for my money. Love Dreams has to prove he is up to this mark but he is unexposed still as a handicapper and until he's proved the handicapper has him, I'm happy to give any unexposed/lightly raced horse a go if the price is right. This one did well in first time blinkers LTO and there could be more to come. That run at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance was good. Drawn in 7 this prominent racer should get out and get a prominent position. It could be a MJ 1-2 the whole way round, with Right Action not far behind. I have read nothing into the jockey bookings given Fanning has never ridden this horse which I find odd and suggests an owners decision, and Mosse is 3/10,6p riding for the trainer, 2/8,4p in handicaps, and he is 3/9,4p at the course from all rides in the last 5 years. I just thought there was a lot to like and especially given plenty in here may need the run and plenty more will need luck in running being held up types/drawn wide. I would hope the two Johnson horses don't set this up for a closer which would be idiotic. I have had a saver on Masham Star given he is drawn low and races up there... he doesn't look in as good form as his stablemate and is only 1/19 in turf handicaps, but these two could have it between them. He has the form to figure and is handicapped to do so.
Black Sam Bella - makes handicap hurdle debut here after a break and steps up in trip. There are reasons to hope that she could now get involved, having run well enough in novice/maiden hurdles, running as if well worth a go over this far. Dan and Harry are 14/33,25p with all runners here in the last 365 days, Dan is 6/16,12p with all handicappers here returning after 60+ days. It's the type of jumps profile I like to attack although as well have seen my jumps efforts on the notes front since Nov 17 haven't been the best! The Hobbs horse is a worthy fav and I won't fall off my seat if she wins, and Lavelle's is interesting as she could get an easy lead here...just then whether she stays, but worth a go. Those three look most interesting to my eyes.
Oasis Charm - given the market it may be wise to have a saver on the Varian horse who could be anything but given his price that could be argued as being rather cowardly! 10s has just lured me in here given he is unexposed in handicaps, is fit, in form having won LTO, and there should be more to come. I can't think he has reached the ceiling of his abilities yet although clearly he could bump into something with more in hand/a touch more class. The trainer is 4/10,7p win the last 14 days, having started the UK turf season in fine form. Buick is riding superbly and rarely has a horse in the wrong position here. I think the stalls are stand side in all races bar over 12f today, so hopefully he can get out and across/a decent position in the front 3rd- although from 2 that could be tough. There is also a slight niggle about his attitude as having watched the video LTO his head carriage was a bit awkward and he dived left a tad..but he did respond to Buick's urging and went past his rival easily enough. He stays further than this I suspect so will hopefully get rolling soon enough. I'd be disappointed if he wasn't in the frame but just a case if anything is better treated/more unexposed. 10s seemed generous enough given his profile and hopefully plenty in here need the run.
Avondhu Pearl - was well worth a go at 16s/18s to my eye given she is unexposed under rules, over fences, and in handicaps. She is a point winner on good ground and I can't think enjoyed the heavy LTO. She travelled and jumped ok to a point. She returns to a decent surface here and takes a drop in class, into a very moderate race. The trainer is 7/22,11p here in C5 handicaps, and his son Sam rides at Uttoxeter earlier in the day I think, before heading up here. Her form 'story' makes sense also..she ran well until 3 out over 24f at Muss on handicap hurdle debut. I don't think she stayed. She then had a break- to avoid the worst of the ground no doubt - returning over 17f in a C4 handicap hurdle, running well. I don't think she has the pace for that trip and in any case probably needed it. She returned to fences LTO in heavy, running ok to a point. She could be well handicapped over fences when it all clicks and she faces plenty of old boys/moderate/out of form sorts. She may find this big field too much but I'm interested to see her in these conditions. Touch wood she jumps better out of this ground/jumps well generally, and gives me a run for my money. 18s seemed worth a stab and I'd like to see some money come, given her profile. Rossamilan - Russell isn't prolific with handicap debutants but does have winners and I am more cautious with chase handicap debutants- fitness is an unknown and Russell is only 3/74 in the last 2 years with horses she moves in distance by 20% or more from last run- that put me off a tad, but given his profile/connections in a C5 here, is maybe worth some change just in case, but my head said no.
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That's all for today.
GL with any bets,
Josh
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