Good Evening, Friend,
Below you can find my workings for the two big handicaps from Ayr on Saturday. For those of you who enjoy trying to solve the puzzle yourself, I hope either the trends, shortlists or the trainers lists help - often the winner is lurking somewhere, easier said than done landing on the right one of course! But that's the game.
I hope you've had a better week than me, although in the grand scheme of this game, I shouldn't complain too much. I enjoyed my trip to Kelso and as always had fun spending time with some of our owners. Sadly Kaleb didn't read the script and having cruised around as if he'd be bang there at the finish, found sod all when Jack asked him to pick up, nothing left in the tank. Maybe the trip Ireland took a bit out of him or he'd had enough for the season, but you wouldn't have known it from his homework, the sod. That's how it goes. My main fancy on the card may also still be running, poor!
Sadly real heartbreak was to come when trainer Mark Walford phoned me up to say our Blazing Soldier had injured a tendon on the gallops, and his recommendation was retirement from racing. A right kick in the guts and I'm still not really over it, his owners devastated. He is at least in one piece and in time we'll find him a forever home. He won for us on debut at Newcastle last season and we were so excited to see him over a fence, only 3-4 weeks away from returning to the course. It's a horrid game at times, but move on we must.
Onto Ayr and hopefully the below is of some use...
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Ayr Silver Cup : 2.25
15/372, 60p
15/15 NOT drawn stalls 12-19 (were: 0/117, 8p)
15/15 sent off 33/1 or shorter SP (were not: 0/64,0p)
15/15 max distance had WON over in career was between 6-7f (was not: 0/72, 8p)
15/15 had 13< runs in prev 365 days (14+ : 0/46, 4p)
15/15 had 0-2 wins in prev 365 days (3+ : 0/69, 10p)
10/15 aged 4-5
Other
Horse wore blinkers: 0/30,0p
Horse ran at Thirsk, Ascot or Chester LTO: 0/72, 9p
*
Applying the trends…
Possibly a bit of a so-so profile, but if the 15/15 stats hold, ignoring draw and odds for now, would leave a long list of eleven…
Brooklyn Nine Nine, Paws For Thought, Aramram, Lucky Man, rhythm N Hooves, Sergeant Pep, Jenever, Mr Wagyu, Admiral D, Be Proud, Twelfth Knight
IF the stalls stat holds (being in that middle range hasn’t been a positive), applied to the list above, would point to six, IF upholding…
Lucky Man, Paws For Thought, Jenever, Rhythm N Hooves, Mr Wagyu, Be Proud
Of those with 2-5 career wins: Lucky Man, Jenever, Rhythm N Hooves
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
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Ayr Gold Cup: 3.35
17/394, 64p
17/17 sent off 28/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 0/113,4p)
17/17 had 11< runs in prev 365 days (12+ : 0/56, 8p)
17/17 had placed at least once last four starts (had not: 0/68, 4p)
17/17 had 8< runs this calendar year (9+ : 0/72, 12p)
17/17 ran within 60 days (61+ : 0/40,2p)
16/17 aged 6 or younger (older: 1/72, 7p)
16/17 between 3lb-10lb higher than last win (were not: 1/155, 15p)
16/17 Top 3 at least once last three starts (were not: 1/112,7p)
16/17 had 2-7 career wins (did not: 1/82, 9p)
15/17 horse aged 3-5 when last winning (6+ : 2/133,16p)
13/17 had 1-3 wins in handicaps (did not: 4/223, 32p)
Other
Horse wore tongue-tie: 0/26,3p
*
Applying the trends…
Arguably another ‘so so’ trends race, but the 17/17 stats, ignoring odds, only get us so far, that’s IF upholding of course, leaving a long list of fifteen…
American Affair, Ramazan, Lethal Levi, Mostabshir, Northern Express, Orazio, Strike Red, Pilgrim, Korker, Sergeant Wilko, Glenfinnan, Jehanger, Commanche Falls, Aramis Grey, Tinto
Applying the 16/17 stats , again IF upholding, would point to eight…
American Affair, Ramazan, Orazio, Northern Express, Pilgrim, Glenfinnan, Sergeant Wilko, Jehangeer
Applying the other two stats, would have found 12/17 winners (12/71, 23p, +130 BFSP) , inc 7 of the 8… and would point to five…
Ramazan, Orazio, Pilgrim, Glenfinnan, Jehangeer
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
Ramazan, Strike Red, Dare To Hope
Room Service, Aleezdancer, Sergeant Wilki, Jehangeer
Kings Lynn, Fivethousandtoone
*
All the best,
Josh
