Good Morning,
The Royal Hunt Cup
My two darts have landed on Real Gain (11.00 betfair) and Coeur dOr (13.00)
A decent start yesterday with Pledgeofallegiance winning (I got 24.00, although he hit 30s at once stage), a 1st and 4th from four pokes in The Ascot Stakes and with eight ‘trends handicaps’ to go, as per my report below, that should ensure a break-even week, at the very worst. However I’ll see if I can bag another one or two, all good fun, and it was exciting cheering him home, even for fun money. No 20/1 winner today but hopefully these two can run well...
Real Gain – again I’ve stuck with my trends profile (down below), this one from the ‘shortlist’, I hope it holds as per yesterday, and that I’ve landed on the right ones! I don’t know if being high is an advantage or not on the straight course, it appeared that way yesterday, and if it’s the same today, Real Gain is in the right spot. He looks open to bundles of progress, assuming fast ground is the key to him (and maybe being fresh), given the only time he’s faced a road was a demolition job at Newmarket where he travelled with ease and sprinted for home impressively. His ability to stay further is a positive over this CD, and he looks straight forward. This looks like it’s been the plan, Buick has been booked (5/20,10p for the yard in last two years) and Hughes had the 5th in this last year. I expect a big run from him and 10s or so on Betfair looked decent enough. The other positive is that he can race handily and on paper I wasn’t sure there was loads of pace here, and you may not want to be too far back, we shall see. He’s versatile, no excuse.
Coeur D’OR – Dermot Weld is in fine form and I wanted this lad onside given his place on the trends longlist and how eye-catching he was on his return run over 6f. Everything suggests this has been the plan, and he was tenderly handled there as he stormed for the line having been outpaced. While aged 8, he moved like a well handicapped horse and as if he could be improving, having won two big handicaps in Ireland last summer, including The Irish Cambridgeshire. He looks uncomplicated and the jockey will have the choice of which side to go, hopefully he chooses correctly. His best form is on Good and a chance he improves further for faster ground, it shouldn’t be a hindrance anyway. Assuming he ends up on the right place on the course, if he runs to his best he’s going to be bang there in this.
I can’t say I wanted tempted in my much else, Wild Tiger should go well, but I thought short enough for one up in trip over this stiff 8f which takes some getting in a race like this, and completely different to LTO. However, he hits my trends, is progressive, SBS knows how to win this, and he could improve for the trip and stay, I just wanted a bit bigger price but he should go well. Aerion Power placed in this last year but he’s effectively 8lb higher here which is what put me off, he could grab a place but I didn’t think he looked that well handicapped for win purposes. Ropey Guest could maybe grab a place as well, but he’s now 0/21 at Ascot, and while some fine placed efforts to his name, in big handicaps, he’s struggled to get his head in front and is always open to attack from better treated rivals. But if you’re after a big priced EW play, he may be it. Daysofourlives could go well at a price in his first Visor also, but he’s not the easiest and I wasn’t sure would be good enough, or had enough in hand, but he could go well for a time, especially if they’re more aggressive with him.
There’s a strong chance I haven’t mentioned the winner, it’s that sort of race. In any case, a bit of fun and I’m playing with profit, hopefully one of my two can get the job done.
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STATS & TRENDS
Please do read my free report HERE >>>
Trainer/Jockey Combo ‘Qualifiers’
An agonising 40/1 nose 2nd yesterday from three 'qualifiers', hopefully that's not as good as it gets!
2.30 – Kassaya (AB/OM, 11/1<)
3.05 – Mina Rashid (AB/OM, 11/1<)
4.25 – Auguste Rodin (AOB/RM, 10/1<)
6.15 – Treasure Isle (AOB/RM, 10/1<)
6.15 – Vingegaard (AW/HD)
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Jamie Spencer Straight Course (EW)
5.05 – Bless Him
5.40- Elim
6.15 – Aint Nobody
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TRENDS: 17.05 – The Royal Hunt Cup
Ignoring the odds (no winner in last 16 years bigger than 33/1 SP) the other 16/16 pointers from my free report are only so helpful, pointing to a long list of thirteen…
Wild Tiger, Real Gain, Coeur dOr, The Gatekeeper, Daysofourlives, Talis Evolvere, Aerion Power, Kings Code, Ropey Guest, Thunder Ball, Padishakh, Mirsky, Imperial Fighter
Using the above and looking at those with 0-3 handicap wins and Top 3 at least once last three starts, would have found 13/16 winners, including the last nine, and IF upholding would point to…
Wild Tiger, Real Gain, Daysofourlives, Talis Evolvere, Ropey Guest
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
Wild Tiger
Sonny Liston
Sean / Imperial Fighter
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Good luck with any bets,
Josh
