Good Morning, Friend
Let me jump straight to it...
The Galway Plate (7.10) Tips & Trends
Perceval Legallois - 5/1 - win only
Authorized Art - 16/1-14/ - EW 6p
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Hopefully I can follow up last year's winner of this race, fingers crossed...
Perceval L (his price has gone a bit since posting in the Telegram group>>>, however, he may edge back out to 5s+ or so, especially on Betfair Exchange)
I thought I'd best not be too clever here and try to get him beat, 5s actually OK for me, he could be smashed in, esp with his usual prom running style which is obv ideal around here and out of trouble. I suspect he'll only beat himself, has had odd issue at fences but a decent jumper, has just over pitched a couple times but was foot perfect at Punchy.
At times this also isn't a race to be overly smart, 7/16 won by horses sent off 7s<, inc 3 of last 4, 4/14,9p clear favs have won in that time. JP is 1/1 with favs in this.
The horse...i suspect he's the best handicapped in the race, just when he shows it, this his 6th chase and 3rd hncp chase. He's smart, with some solid handicap form, inc over hurdles with a facile win over 3m at Dublin racing festival, race has produced fair few winners in behind. Those are some of most competitive hncps in the jumps calendar either side of Irish sea.
He won on chase debut around Galway, 18f, last Oct, jumping well, winning as he pleased. 2 starts back at Leop over fences, back at DRF, 2m5f 25 runner G3...well, he was coming to win that I think, but over pitched at last, having jumped so well until then under claimer. In any case even if 2nd he'd have been 14l clear of the rest and the winner was an in form unexposed horse for HDB.
Then to Punchy, 20f, lobbed around on the lead, jumped like a cat, two came 11l clear of 3rd, but he bumped into an unexosed one of Barry Connels, who'd won LTO (somehow sent off 16s). The rest pulverised. I suspect the trip short enough, he lacked the pace late, maybe Mark should have kicked him on sooner, but in any case, still a fine run and moved liked he's throw in still. As a former 3m hurdle winner, he may well improve for those 2m6f and enjoy that long stiff climb to the line.
Mark has options, the horse likes to race up there but he should be able to slot in behind Ash Tree and Authroized Art and be in the perfect spot. Maybe my two will be fighting it out.
I have concluded, if he jumps, he wins, and at 5s that was enough.
He ticks all my main trends, and that good stat of those to have run in a race for novices or maiden LTO. Punchy has been a good prep track for this race. Evidently he's been saved for it, he goes well fresh, yard going along fine.
Cromwell/Mark Walsh are 5/17, 9p in the last year, I assume all for JP, evidently picks right plenty when Cromwell trained.
What could go wrong?! (Falls at first 😂🙈).
Authorized A - I can't think this lad will drift but who knows, I can't leave him at these odds, seems far too big for last years 2nd, behind our make all winner Ash Tree Meadow, who's 15lb higher this year, 8lb swing with Ash Tree. Front two well clear last year, 7l of rest.
He's still lightly raced/in handicaps, this may have been plan since last years race but certainly since Nov Chelt. He wants decent ground. Spin in May was his first in 165 days, sent off 25s, unfancied and ran as if needing it a bit but still a solid 3rd not beaten far. No CP on there as per last year's race, now they return, no doubt the plan/freshened up. He's good after this sort of break. He should race handy if breaking on terms (can have those awful standing starts with bet lost before race has begun), may well lead, but will certainly be bang there. This is a weaker renewal on ratings, he's got 11-5 this year, 10-5 last year (7lb higher). If he's in first 4 after 2 jumps, he won't be out the 6 here, and could be one to catch after last. Last years renewal strong enough, x15 subsequent winners inc Ash Tree who's won x3 since and may give it a good go again, but top weight this time (-7lb claim), carried 9-11 last year.
He hits all my main trends and horses who've ran in the race once previously, have won 2 of last 3, 3 of last 6, he's the only such runner this year. Indeed those who've placed in race prev have won 2 of last 3, Willie with one of those, Ash Tree was such a winner last year, 4th year before. Yard going along fine.
He just has to be an EW bet at those odds. Has to. Whatever he does.
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Of the rest...
I did muse over Solness at 29.00, but concluded he won't stay. I don't know that for sure but you have to take a view. This trip is a reason for improvement though, he needs to, can be a bit keen in races, and I wasn't sure crying out for it. I could be wrong and he'd be 'the' painful winner in this, the rest of them beating me I can live with, I wasn't that close.
I didn't really like much else at odds. Fav had Mister Policeman in trouble at Punchy long before he PU but evidently maybe wasn't right. I suppose he could bounce back here for Mullins. I'm not convinced on Zanahiyr as a chaser for all has a touch of class and being nibbled at.
In Excelsis Deo will run well, IF he can keep tabs and if he jumps to his best, he's had problems. He lost his pitch a bit at Chelt over 2m5f, more galloping course, and I wondered if may get tapped for toe/or behind here, with loads to do. I could be wrong. IF he can hold a prom position, he will be hurtling up the hill, although don't know what form yard are in either, don't have many summer runners.
If something else does me not mentioned, then I really wasn't that close this year!
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Galway Plate Trends & Trainers
16/346, 64p
16/16 between 5lb and 22lb below Top rated (0/90, 10p were not)
16/16 had 0-2 runs this season (3+ : 0/50,8p)
15/16 OR was between 1lb lower and 7lb higher than LTO (were not: 1/129, 19p)
15/16 had 2-5 runs this calendar year (did not: 1/102, 16p)
15/16 ran over 2m6f or shorter LTO (further: 1/88, 12p)
14/16 sent off 16/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 2/167, 11p)
13/16 max distance win to date between 2m4-2m6f (was not: 3/166,22p, does inc 2 of last 5)
12/16 Top 2 at least once last three starts
8/16 ran in a race for maidens or novices LTO (8/52, 18p) (Perceval Legallois, Mister Policeman, Zanahiyr)
Trainers
G Elliott: 4/36, 8p
Henry D-B: 2/32, 3p
W Mullins: 2/55,17p
x1: T Mullins, J & T Kiely, C A McBratney, J J Hanlon, N Meade, Joseph O-B, P Nicholls, TK Taffe
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Applying the trends…
This race has a funny trends feel to it with a few ‘left field’ pointers, and applying the two 16/16 stats doesn’t help too much, leaving too many. However, if the ‘OR’ 15/16 trend holds, that would point to 15/16 winners and give a more manageable list of nine…
Perceval Legallois, In Excelsis Deo, Mister Policeman, Amirite, Authorized Art, Life In The park, Toss Again Tullybeg, Solness
It may be best to focus on that list, but applying the other 15/16 stats would have pointed to 13/16 winners, (although ‘only’ 2 of last 4) and IF upholding, would reduce to five…
Perceval Legallois, In Excelsis Deo, Mister Policeman, Solness, Life In The Park
From that list, of those who had max career win between 2m4-2m6f, (leaving 11/16 winners, so maybe not too reliable) would point to…
In Excelsis Deo, Life In The Park, Solness
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
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Thanks for reading and GL with any bets,
All the best,
Josh
