Good Morning, Friend

Today's Blog Content Below...

A few things of interest for you today, including today's blog content which I've repeated below for ease of reference.

Chepstow Trainers...

First up, I had a look at which trainers have done well at this two-day 'Silver Trophy' meeting in the last five years.

You can read through my research HERE >>>

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3m Chase Tip - yesterday I had a look at 3.50 Chepstow and posted my thoughts in the telegram chat group, as below...

Friday - 3.50 - Wayfinder - 8s gen (ew prob wise) 

I've had a browse and while I usually like waiting until the day, I can't resist a go at 8s here, will no doubt drift to 12s now . Surely Rebecca has him primed for this, at his fav course, over fences...

All chase wins here, 4/9,6p, 3/9,5p under Ben J, 1/3,3p on seasonal return, 2/4,4p in October. Has to go LH and doesn't want ground overly testing to be seen to best. This is the time to catch him, his first Vets at 'his' course. Ran well early last season, 3rd in Chelt C2, may have just stretched him, then fell, before 2nd to Nassalam here in the WN trial, in heavy, winner dossed up of course, before doing so again in the main event, rated 20lb higher than when they met here.  In Vets races generally best to side with 10YOs, or at least have one onside. 

Should race prominently, Rebecca 1/2 in last 30 days. I simply cannot leave him at 8s. If this isn't his seasonal gold cup, I'm not sure what else will be.

I should add, he has been a 'bleeder' in the past, and a few times last season, always a chance he goes 'pop' again for all I think built into price - I suspect that issue is one of reasons he does well fresh/after a break, and on better ground (less hard work). This has to be the time to catch him, and if he goes pop again they should probably retire him!

I do like 'Good Boy Bobby' who won for us last year, but at a bigger price. I suppose there's no 'Aye Right' in this year's race, and Twister is on fire. But he's not overpriced in my view and another year older. I have actually backed him and Wayfinder in a RFC for fun, small stakes. I do like Certainly Red also, just a question over fitness, his mark, and going left-handed. He has been better RH chasing, but maybe he's had excuses to date. If I'm wrong on those factors he'll go well at 6s also. I can't say I liked much else at the odds, Bowen's should go well but open to attack from something with 'winter class' but at least he's fit and in-form, but short enough for me.

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Today’s Stats Starting Points

Remember, this is a ‘stats first’ approach, NO assessment of the horses form/profile has gone into the below, all angles with at least a 30% SR. They’re here to help give you a kick start, save time and add some focus, before further analysis if you so wish. With any luck a fun, engaging and rewarding challenge over time Let’s crack on…

Yesterday I flagged x11 horses, x7 of them in the top 3, one 4s>2s winner, three of the four losers big prices/drifted badly. This is the best approach I've taken to 'daily stats content' to date I think, certainly with number of winners and 'runs for your money' it's churning out, giving anyone who takes a deeper dive, or plays around with some fun trixies or whatever, a greater chance of success. I hope you're enjoying the challenge of diving in and the buzz when you land on a winner...

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Ayr –

4.33 – Mr Jetman – Tuer/James are in form, 3/5,4p +25 in prev 30 days

5.08 – Dandy’s Angel – trainer John Wainright does well keeping them in form, 4/17,6p with LTO winners, 5/16,6p +18 when horse returns within x7 days, Jockey riding well.

Bath –

1.25 – Tarbat Ness – trainer/jockey are 6/19,11p +14 together in last year.

Chelmsford –

7.15 – G’Daay – trainer Joseph Parr remains in form 3/10,4p +11 in last 30 days, horse 3/11,6p at the course.

Exeter –

2.23 – A Definite Getaway – The Bowens are 4/11,7p +7 in last 14 days, a team in form. With James up, 4/6,6p in last 30 days, +18, and James is riding well, and a jockey to keep onside this winter, 10/27, 13p +35 in last 30 days. A novice handicap chase where ‘summer jumps’ meet ‘winter’ horses, Bailey’s looks fancied, a qualifier below, chase debut, as does Nicholl’s, again, chase debut – Nicholls 0/4,0p with his runners in last 30 days, you’d like to see some fire today before Chepstow kicks off? Definite G can jump and won’t have problems with the ground, 1/3,2p chasing, unexposed over 3m, a chance NA too tight LTO? I wonder if James will launch him from front and put exp to good use, of course one of top 2 could have too much class/in hand, if taking to it/fit/a1, this lad’s chase debut win at C5 level. They’ll no doubt be the better chasers in 1-4 starts time, maybe. Interesting little race.

4.08 – Penna Rossa – it can pay to keep Keiran Burk’s stable switchers onside, those changing yards making debut for him are 4/14, 6p +9 first time up in the last two years.

Southwell –

4.55 – Naturally – Ed Walker/Tom M are 4/12,5p +12 together in last 14 days (that won’t count Arc weekend winner either)… Ed does well with horses making 2nd career start, another winner last night at 8s, they can take big strides forward, in last two years, the ‘2nd time out’ horses are 21/92, 39p, +144 SP, and is a flat/AW ‘micro angle’ to store away and keep onside – in theory, Ed’s training behaviour won’t change, he’ll keep being stocked with nice horses, using top jockeys, so it could keep rumbling on for a time.

Thurles –

2.30 – Jareth – trainer/jockey are 2/5,2p last 30 d, +32. This one is worth tracking whatever he does here, his decent maiden run is a race working out well, he was 4th, 2nd 3/3 since inc Listed, and 3rd won NTO off 81 in a handicap. This lad was wide, outpaced, stayed on, bred to want further and now goes over 1m. Trainer is 3/9,3p in last 14 days, is 3/16,5p +30 when moving horses 20% or more in distance and over middle distances last year, all runners, 10/56, 16p +31. In the last 2 years, trainer/jockey, 2YO/ Non-Handicap/ this class… 4/12,4p +15.

4.15 – Granite Bay – trainer/jockey 2/6,4p +5 in last 30 days, in the last year together in handicaps, 6/19,10p +25 SP, 5/9,6p +18 in this class. Horse has been progressive on decent ground, races working out, and may not be far away again, for all you’d expect a step forward from the O’Brien fav at some stage.

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October Trainer Qualifiers

2.23 Exet – Magical Escape (any)

2.58 Exet – Mavis Pike (12/1<)

4.08 Exet -Bluebella (any)

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That's all for today.

I'll be pulling together some 'Sat ITV Big Race Trends & Trainers' later today, with 'The Ces', The Coral Sprint Trophy from York, and maybe a look at the big handicap hurdle from Chepstow, which isn't on TV.

Thanks for reading and GL with any bets,

Josh

p.s If owning a share in an winter jumps horse excites you, do check out our latest addition, HERE >>>