Over to Sam...

A decent winner at Epsom last Friday, can he follow it up?

You can read is musings, reasoning and summary HERE >>>

SUMMARY (6.05pm Goodwood)

This looks a poor race and unlike most of Outgun’s handicap starts, this doesn’t look like a contest that will be throwing up lots of future winners.

In that respect it should be a no excuses race for OUTGUN. Maybe he’ll need the run but the evidence suggests he’ll be fit enough. It’s possible he won’t like Goodwood but he’s handled every other course he’s tried so far. The main worry is what sort of ride he’s going to be given in this. If he’s given a half competent ride we should finally find out if he goes through with his effort or not.

This is a horse that’s often well found in the market, he’s been sent off shorter than 7/2 on his last four flat starts and despite the lack of recent run, I very much expect him to be the early favourite in the betting. If I’m backing a jockey that has only ever won three races I want a half decent price to make up for that fact.

Lunario is probably the main danger and likely 2nd favourite with Pink Lily perhaps next in the betting. There really doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of competition here so despite there being 11 runners, I can’t really see Outgun being available at more than 3/1. I certainly wouldn’t want to backing him at a shorter price than 5/2 so if he’s 9/4 or less this is definitely a no bet race and if he’s around the 5/2 or 11/4 market I certainly won’t be getting carried away.

Occasionally, the odds compilers are overly generous and if he was more like 9/2 or 5/1 I’d be very happy. I won’t be expecting that sort of price though.

I’m confident he’ll run well if getting the breaks but there are some big risks in terms of getting his head in front so he definitely needs to be the right price to get involved.

Sam Darby – Winning Post Profits

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That's all for today's email, best of luck with any bets as always,

All the best,

Josh

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