Subject: Potential Over 0.5 Football Trading Strategy? ⚽

Recently writing a blog that will be coming out soon on the Best Betfair Football Trading Strategy I came across something interesting in the stats that I want to share with you.

Some of you know that I am putting together my ideas for a Betfair Trading Newsletter and this is a tester of how that newsletter could look, if this is something you might like then let me know.

If it’s pants also let me know.

I was just throwing some ideas around for a strategy for the First Half goals market. Mainly for the blog I was writing to put some context around the blog post and give some examples.

WARNING: This isn’t me saying I use this strategy or it’s profitable! It’s me explaining how I found it and how on the face of this it has some early promise!!

I started by thinking you’d want to find games where they stats say the games had over 80% FH 0.5 goals.

This is because thats a high stat and it would bring teams that score a lot in the first half against teams that concede a lot in the first half and teams that start strong.

Well this game popped up, and I thought hmm I wonder what 80% is in odds format, luckily I don’t have to do any maths with the software and just clicked odds.

Turns out it was 1.25, a quick look on Betfair revealed that the current price on offer (however there’s only £5 matched on that market!) was this…

Little bit of value isn't there?

The true odds should be 1.25 and the real odds on offer are 1.41 - just to let you know you can also get 1.4 on Bet365 ;)

Also the naysayers now who are thinking well you wouldn't ever back at 1.41, firstly go away.

Second, expand your thinking!! Here’s what I did next…

I went to the software and checked what time the average first goal came at ;)

You see if you were a naysayer you’d have written this potentially simple strategy off, but by checking that you can see it comes at…

WOW nearly 30 mins, I know for a FACT that 1.41 will be a lot bigger if this game was still goalless at 20 mins wouldn’t you?

Potential Strategy?

Maybe, even as I write this I know some will slate me and say this isn’t a viable strategy. I never said it was, I was merely explaining the process of how I found this and how this with some testing could actually be a solid strategy.

That’s the beauty with looking purely at stats, I was able to search all the games today for one particular stat and in the space of 20 mins or so find some really strong angles.

That might actually be really easy to use as well.

If you want to run with it you’ll need to find 3 things daily to get the qualifiers.

First Half Over 0.5 Goals 80%
AVG first goal time
Convert the First Half Over 0.5 Goals to decimal odds

If you're a member I have put this together as a filter and saved it so you can import it if you want to test and run with this.

What next?

Use this and build it yourself or allow my thinking to hopefully spark something into your own thinking.

You never know where a bit of curiosity might take you!

Ryan

What did you think of this newsletter? :D or POO just reply and let me know.

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Subject: Potential Over 0.5 Football Trading Strategy? ⚽

Potential Strategy?

What next?