Ok, so we lost some money in the last month.
28 points to be exact, a couple of free bets on the footie reduced the loss a tiny bit. I am going to be honest with this as I have always tried to be.
What’s interesting with this and writing the newsletter about this project is that there's a record not just of the number but how I felt and feel about this.
So even after this month when there’s a loss, I can look back at the last 3 months and I see this:
This strategy pulled in 94 points in profit.
I mean can you argue with that? I remember that when I turned this bot on it started well, then there was a couple of teething issues with the tech and then I missed a couple of weeks getting a Betfair API sorted.
Then it hit a bad patch which put me back a few steps, then Adam and I spoke and some tweaks were made (mainly Adam's suggestions if I am honest! He’ll also be reading this, he’s the overlord of BTC he knows everything that is happening).
So after the tweaks it’s been on a stormin norman 3 months pulling back the loss and then some.
If I am honest you know what’s annoying me?
I expected more. Which is crazy. I need to leave all that at the door. I need to remember this is like starting as a total newbie. Yes I have been around Betfair for a long time but I haven’t done anything with the horses in years, I have done nothing with automation. Do I really think I can just pick this up and it works?
I actually feel stupid admitting that outloud. Even as I sit here now I am chuckling at that, what did I expect?
But that’s really insightful because if I am wanting more then I bet you guys are also expecting more from your strategies too?
What do you consider good? What are your goals from your strategies?
I know this is not going to be a short term project, I am invested in this for the long term. I view this the same way I view my pension, it’s a long term play now. Putting the time and effort into maximise the returns.
That’s what I am going to keep repeating to myself. I am being totally honest with you here.
I’ve always said trading is amazing at making you look at you. What makes you tick. Your strengths and weaknesses. One of my strengths was I can make a decision and feel confident in that, that’s how I used to trade. I traded a lot using data to narrow my potential trades.
Then I would use that as a hypothesis and be able to connect the dots to the data and what I was seeing in front of me. That’s not really how this automation stuff works best.
So I am having to learn new skills, which is something I love and will hopefully never stop doing. I love to learn, to get better. I feel a bit of a relic at trading, there’s all these new math’s whiz kids doing fancy things - when I used to use Lay the draw and find tennis players who were value and usually started strong…
Why am I telling you all this?
Well it’s more a letter to me than you, but I hope you get some value in this. I hope you enjoy reading this and I love the interactions with the people who have been reading these and have shared their thoughts with me.
It’s also been a year that I have been automating my trading, pretty crazy how fast that has gone. It’s not been a year since the bot has been on though, but the cold hard facts of this are from a year of trading I have made a grand total of 45 points.
I am happy with that. I haven’t lost money, I have made a profit in something that is totally alien to me. I’ve also reminded myself what I have trained my mind to do, how I want and need it to act. To not panic, to be calm. Many would have thrown the towel in a few times along this ride - many reading this have called it quits with their own trading when its gone wrong.
I am committed to this and I am excited to see now hopefully the teething issues are behind me and we can power on.
Einstein was right…
‘Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.’
Ryan