What the statistics say
What the statistics reveal, is that the majority of winners are returned at odds of 20/1 or less, but are not favourite; they are most likely to be 9 or 10 year olds, although we can no longer say with confidence that they are likely to be weighted somewhere between 10.00-10.13, as six of the last eleven winners of the race have been weighted either 11.0 or higher - a factor that can be atrributed to the fact that the race has consistently attracted better horses during this period (although it must be noted that on each occasion there was "good" in the going.
Weight
The top weights may not perform so well in a grand national that was run on purely soft going). Every winner over the past ten years had also won a race valued at more than 17K prior to landing the big one, and had previously won over 3m.
Race Frequency
Twenty three of the last twenty four winners of the race had run at least three times during the season, prior to taking the race, with twenty one of the last twenty three having run between four and six times.
Last three runs
Nine of the last ten winners had achieved at least one top-three finish in their last three runs. Regarding the 2016 renewal Holywell very clearly fits the bill, and is, following his recent run at Cheltenham a very well handicapped horse, albeit a somewhat quirky one.
Gallant Oscar has clearly been laid out for the race by the most shrewd of connections and it would be no great surprise to see him challenging for the favourite spot come the big day.
Today's Aintree and Grand National Tips
BACK TIPS FOR TODAY: 09/04/2016
Arpege Dalene (FR) 1.45. Aintree
Goonyella (IRE) 5.15. Aintree
Holywell (IRE) 5.15. Aintree
Unioniste (FR) 5.15. Aintree
SIRE STATS (Lays) : 09/04/16
NONE TODAY
SYSTEM LAYS 09/04/16
NONE TODAY
Everyone has a preferred staking plan, however at big race meetings such as today's card at Aintree, it’s worth backing the higher-priced horses each way. Simply because the odds are generous.
