Subject: Day 15
Hi Friend,
We have two of the eight round of 16 matches this evening and tonight.
17:00 - Wales v Denmark
20:00 - Italy v Austria
I know I have one or two Welsh members and if I'm not mistaken, I have one or two Danish members too, but I have a feeling the Danes will come out on top here.
After their horror start to the tournament they've settled and become stronger. Their 1-4 demolition of Russia was also a big confidence boost
One thing we also need to consider is that these matches are at neutral venues for all 4 sides tomorrow.
Johan Cruyff arena for the Welsh v Danish game and Wembley for the Italy v Austria game.
17:00 - Wales v Denmark
Bet 1: Both teams to score - Yes (2.38 on the Exchange)
Stake: £18
Bet #2 and #3 are small cover bets. Both bets are in the "correct score" market and we are betting on 0-1 Denmark and 0-2 Denmark. This is in case we don't get BTTS!
Bet 2: Correct Score (0-1 Denmark) (6.20 on the exchange)
Stake: £1.50
Bet 3: Correct Score (0-2 Denmark) (9.20 on the exchange)
Stake: £1.50
BASICALLY the cover bets are there in case we don't get BTTS
20:00 - Italy v Austria
Bet 1: Italy Win (1.51 on the Betair Exchange)
Stake: £25
Bet 2: Both teams to score - yes (2.46 On the Betfair Exchange)
Stake: £10
ANALYSIS - WALES v DENMARK
In the Nations league two years ago, Denmark beat Wales home and away. I do think they just are a bit better in terms of quality.
I do think this could well end in a 1-1 draw and it goes to extra time. I think both sides will try and keep it tight.
It is definitely not a cut and dry Danish win - they have been through a lot this tournament but I think Wales lack the defensive/midfield capability compared to Denmark.
It feels like 1-1/1-2 Denmark for me.
ANALYSIS - ITALY v AUSTRIA
This game is being played at Wembley which will be a change of scenery from the Italian Olympic stadium - where they have thrashed everyone.
I don't think the change in arena will be enough to deter Austria BUT I do think they will finally concede.
Arnautovic being back gives Austria that little bit of hope and the odds make this worth for another both to score. We have hedged our bets again with some standard match odds too.
I have gone with a fairly mild stake on the BTTS but I am not holding back on the Italian win expectation.
Thank You
Kind Regards
John Anthony